Hopeful Farm

For Sale: Double Agent

2011-11-30T19:52:00.001-05:00

Double Agent, the 3 year old filly by Jenny's My Gal and out of Led Astray, is for sale on the sales page. She has a record of 6:0-2-0 with $25,000 in earnings with both seconds coming earlier this year.

She was bred for distance, but her AR indicates she is a sprinter-type. She runs well on every surface and has a long peak.

Auction End Time: December 4, 2011 8:00 am

Ability Report for horse 12131

Double Agent (2012), 16.2 hand brown filly

By Jenny's My Gal out of Led Astray by Our Differences

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons.

This horse is good on hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse prefers mud.

This horse is good on hard turf.

This horse prefers soft turf.

This horse is of average soundness.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse appears to be a sprinter.

Victory in Japan Sets up Sprinter TC Bid

2011-11-18T14:55:00.001-05:00

After a smashing win in the Yasuda Kinen, War of the Lilies looks to the Sprinter's Triple Crown - starting with the Lightning Stakes. Not since her first start has she raced at so short a distance. But this filly has the raw speed and talent to pose a threat to the year's best sprinters.

"It's always been a goal of ours to win the Sprinter's Triple Crown," owner Chelsey T. told reporters as she oversaw the unloading of the 3 year old filly at Flemington. "Handsome Man came close winning the Lighting and the Oakleigh, but we've never had much luck in this race."

Hopeful Farm has seen some top sprinters since Handsome Man won the Lightning Stakes in back-to-back years (2004 & 2005), but they haven't had a Top 3 finish since their foundation stallion.

"Lilies has all the tools to become a star on the sprinting tracks," Chelsey continued. "I think she has a real shot winning next weekend."

Current Entries: (Updated Dec. 1)

D-Day (JD Kayll Race Club) 6 year old stallion: The 2013 Eclipse Sprinting (co) Chamption has 5 wins (out of 6 tries) this year. This grey stallion has the speed to cut it against the best. He's another that stands a good chance of coming home at the top.

Hepatic Flap (FDL Lodge) 7 year old Stallion: A top sprinter for 5 years and last year's Eclipse Sprinter of the Year has managed a Track Record and World Record at 7 years old. This veteran stallion from FDL Lodge shouldn't be counted out. He still has world class speed. He'll be in it to win it.

Horizon (Zippy Chippy Stables) 4 year old stallion: In the last 6 starts this stallion has not run better than 5th in a field of 7. He hasn't won since he was a juvenile. This stallion won't come within 15 lengths of the leaders.

Other Side of Life (Long Island Hayburners) 4 year old filly: On turf this filly has run twice this year and has come home the winner twice. She's got the speed and on her preferred surface this filly will be a contender.

Reining Money (Golden Acres) - 4 year old stallion: Last year's Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint winner has 2 wins and 2 seconds this season with some nice times posted in lower class races. He hasn't been seen much on the G1 circuit, but this colt has some speed in his feet.

War Dance (Absinthe Acres) - 6 year old stallion: This lightly raced older stallion has some speed and ability. But doesn't have the class to run with the top sprinters of the year.

War of the Lilies (Hopeful Farm) 3 year old filly: Last year's Eclipse 2 Year old Filly turns away from the 3 year old classics and now looks to the sprinting circles. From 5 - 8.5 furlongs she has has a record of 9:7-2-0 and a Track Record at 6 furlongs (2014). She's got speed and will be a threat in the sprinting circles.

Predictions:
War of the Lilies, D-Day, and Hepatic Flap will fight for 1-2-3. Reining Money and Other Side of Life won't be far behind. War Dance will put up a strong run, but won't be there in the end and Horizon will round out the field.

(1) War of the Lilies

(2) D-Day

(3) Hepatic Flap

(4) Reining Money

(5) Other Side of LIfe
(6) War Dance

(7) Horizon

For Sale: Kay's Heir

2011-11-16T09:37:00.001-05:00

Kay's Heir is a 4 year old racing stallion. Lightly raced he's faced the starters only 8 times in his career coming home 2nd in his last two races. Despite his sprinting pedigree this tall grey stallion has proven that he has some deep lungs - running well at 10 and 11 furlongs.

He prefers the turf ovals, but runs well on the dirt as well. This stallion has been a pleasure to work with and trains well. He's a real easy keeper.

If you are interested in him as a racing prospect, he's likely to do well at the ALW/STK level. A range of 9 - 12 furlongs would suit him well. He seems to be entreating his peak at 4 and should finish out the season well.

Listed as a BUY IT NOW for a mere $1,000 OBO.

Ability Report for horse 11373

Kay's Heir (2011), 17.2 hand light gray colt

By Dansilver out of Lady Kay by Kinjite

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).

This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.

This horse is ok on hard dirt.

This horse is good on soft dirt.

This horse is ok in mud.

This horse is good on hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse has physical problems that may lead to alot of injury downtime.

This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

For Sale: Miss Congeniality

2011-11-15T14:36:00.001-05:00

Pulled up sore in her last race, but the vetcheck pronounced her sound for all work. Just needs rest until June 8th. If youare interested in her as a race mare, the vet suggests not putting her in hardworks until June 8th and not picking up a race schedule until the end of Juneat the earliest.

This gorgeous filly is broke to ride and hasquick feet. She could be an exceptional horse off the track with more training(dressage, jumping, eventing... and she's got the temperament to be a nicetrail horse with some more miles). She is a big mare standing just under 17hands and has the gravitas to grab the attention in the ring. She is a wonderto work with, very willing and obliging. Very sweet and an easy keeper. She isnot marsh at all and does well in herd setting.

Currently needs experienced rider only! As she isfresh from the racing tracks. She's residing in Michigan right now. Feel freeto come try her out. You won't be disappointed! Call (269)-625-XXXX for moreinformation. Serious inquiries only!

Ability Report for horse 12129

Miss Congeniality (2012), 16.3 hand golden chestnut filly

By Congenial out of Crown Rose by Chief's Crown

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse is poor on soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is good on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

Some Notes and Thoughts

2011-11-05T22:31:00.000-04:00

Inconsistency, Thy Name is New Secret: New Secret our 2014 Auction purchase has had more ups and downs than I know what to do with. In her last 5 starts she's raced at 8.5 furlongs on fast dirt. Her times have varied from 1:40.85 to 1:44.82 - a near 4 second variance. I'm not sure what to do with her. She was purchased as a breeding prospect, but with her inconsistency I'm not sure if she'll find a place in the breeding shed. She's scheduled to race next weekend, but with limited stall space, she may be shipped out if things don't improve.
Future Broodmares: Seduction and Serephina (aged 6 and 5) have solidified their positions as future Hopeful Farm broodmares. Seduction a World Record holder at 6.5 furlongs will retire at the end of this season and is likely to see Handsome Man or Perfection. Serephina is a solid distance racer who will run on all surfaces. If she keeps up her form, she'll race in 2016 before retiring at 6 years old.
Future at Hopeful Farm - Unclear: Miss Congeniality and Kay's Heir need to show some drastic improvement or they run the risk of being sold. Both should be at, or close to, their peaks. The time for excuses is running out.
Some Real Improvements: Change of Heart was on the chopping block a few weeks ago. But then she pulled off a stellar win as the 3/5 favorite in the Richland Hills Stakes. Here's hoping she'll continue down this road of improvement. HM Kay Dynasty has been running under the radar, but in his last 5 starts he has 3 wins and 2 seconds he's starting to gain some attention (at least among Hopeful Farm staff). He's got some speed, but can he turn it into a winning formula remains to be seen.
Changing Plans: It's no secret that I had originally planned a classics schedule for War of the Lilies this year. But as the results have clearly shown, she just doesn't have the stamina to cut it. But that doesn't mean she's out of racing. She's still a talented filly with some tremendous speed. Look for her at 8 furlongs and under starting in the Yasuda Kinen.
Still a Few Surprises: Southern Belle won the Kentucky Oaks, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Breeder's Cup Distaff last year. In her last start she was very impressive winning the Santa Anita Handicap with an impressive time of 1:58.75. She showed speed and stamina I didn't know she had. Now she faces Gradient and a talented field in the Metropolitan Handicap. Can she win? I don't know, but I've got a wager on her to win.
In Need of Stalls: I am currently at capacity and because I have no free stalls I can not bid on any horse on the Sales List. This needs to change.... soon.

Change of Plans

2011-10-23T17:33:00.001-04:00

After 4 starts with no wins to her name, War of the Lilies has a bit of a change coming ahead of her. I knew she'd be a long shot to win the Kentucky Oaks, but I felt she earned a chance to make a start. Prior to the race I had predicted she'd finish 4th. Although it wasn't a surprising end, I am still a little disappointed that she won't be going on in the classics.

But her career is far from over. She boasts a "very long peak" and she is still a top notch racer. She just has to find a new niche. As a dual-surface threat and excellent speed, I have no doubt she'll find the winner's circle before long.

She's been shipped to Japan where she's preparing for the 8 furlong Yasuda Kinen in June and then to Australia where she'll take on the top sprinters in the Sprinter's Triple Crown.

Make Sense of This

2011-10-05T18:13:00.004-04:00

I purchased Pussy Cat Doll from Eureka Racing Stables as a 3 year old for $250,000. It was a steep, but not too unreasonable purchase for the young, promising filly. Two years later I found myself in a stall crunch and she was sold to Glenmore Parkfor $500,000 as a broodmare prospect. Still, not a too unreasonable price for the filly.

I always semi-regretted selling her as she was a honest mare with nice stamina. When I saw her on the Sales Page I decided I wanted her back. I figured if I could get her around the same price it'd be a good buy.

But then our friend Steven at Golden Acres decided to shatter our plans and quickly raised the bid. In a spur-of-the-moment decision I decided to re-bid and I find myself the winner with a cool price of $1,300,500. Almost 5 times what I originally purchased her for and 2.5 times what I sold her for (and well over what I had expected to pay this time around).

Undoubtably the most illogical purchase I've ever made. My accountant is still shaking his head at that one. He says he's taking my name off the check-book from now on...

Recent Purchases: Two Broodmares from Australia

2011-09-27T19:55:00.005-04:00

In the past few weeks I've acquired two mares from Australia to add to the Hopeful Farm broodmare band. Notice Me from FDL Lodge became our 15th broodmare, and, more recently, the deal on Memorabilia with Chiquita Lodge was finalized.

Memorabilia's sale is still being processed, but we expect her stateside within the next week.

I remember Notice Me as a racer and thought she had a lot of potential. She never quite lived up to all her early promise, but had a solid career winning over $1 million. She has many fine qualities that should make her an excellent broodmare. I have tentatively set up a date with War Machine for this breeding season. Otsego Farm's leading stud has produced outstanding foals for us in the past, and Notice Me seems to be a strong fit as a dirt specialist from 9 to 11 furlongs.

Memorabilia is a long sprinter running best under 9 furlongs. She spent most of her career on the turf, but had some decent runs on the dirt tracks. She won over $4 million with 3 track records, including a win at the Hong Kong Sprint. She was a strong racer and very competitive on the turf tracks. She was purchased with the intention of pairing with our own stallions. She'll see either Handsome Man or Perfection, but I'm leaning towards the latter.

This brings our final broodmare count to 16. My goal is to add 1 to 5 more broodmares in the next year. If you are interested in selling an older race mare or retired broodmare, send me an email or message me on the forum.

Walking on Thin Ice

2011-09-22T21:15:00.002-04:00

3 year old filly Miss Congeniality and 4 year old colt Kay's Heir might find themselves on the chopping block if they don't shape up soon. Both have potential, but they need to make a strong case to keep their stall space. Currently I am at capacity. I have too many horses. I like to keep 1 or 2 stalls open just in case that one special horse shows up on the Sales List. So someone has to go.

Earlier in the year I wrote the article One Last Chance that included 5 racers that needed to show some improvement. Since then The Sequel, Double Agent, and Star Struck have all showed progress. Miss Congeniality and Kay's Heir have been disappointing - to say the least.

With a 4:0-0-0 and 6:0-0-0 record neither of these racers have much going for them - except for some nice breeding and a gut feeling.

I've said it many times before, but I just can't sell Kay's Heir. I don't know why, but I'm convinced he'll pan out. I'm probably wrong.

Miss Congeniality... I'm less keen on keeping her. But she has been given a reprieve.. for now. But one more bad start... and she'll likely be the first Hopeful Farm horse to hit the Sales Page in 2015.

War of the Lilies Trains at Royal Randwick... Not on Racecard

2011-09-22T20:22:00.001-04:00

War of the Lilies was spotted on the training tracks at the Australian track earlier this week. Rumors were floating around the that 3 year old filly was going to race here after her disappointing run in the Kyodo News Service Hai. Entries closed without this filly's name appearing on any of the cards.

"Chelsey and I," Meagan Kane, Assistant Trainer, told reporters this evening, "have been discussing Lilies futures plans. She's a game filly and will be ready to get back to the winner's circle. We considered starting her here, but decided, in the long run, it wasn't in her best interests. Her next race hasn't been finalized. She may be going home to the States, off to Japan, or staying here in Australia. Long term goals include Churchill Downs in May."

Assistant Trainer Meagan Kane has been overseeing Lilies during her time in Australia while Head Trainer and Owner Chelsey T. flew to out California where Hopeful Farm has 3 two-year-olds debuting this weekend.

Two year old colt Tempe's Logic (Run Missy Run x All for Camena) and two year old fillies Seeley's Heart (Braveheart x Grinder's Daughter) and The Ranger's Creed (Color of Fame x Led Astray) all face the starter for the first time. Amongst Hopeful Farm staff these three juveniles are considered to be some of their top prospects.

Racing Week 5 - 6

2011-09-10T11:57:00.001-04:00

After a mishap with our Master Race Schedule, we only have 2 horses going to the tracks for us this week; however, these two sisters both stand a good chance of bringing home wins in their respective races.

Southern Belle - 4 year old filly

G1 Donn Handicap - Gulfstream Park - 9 furlongs Dirt

Last year's Breeders Cup Distaff winner is making her first start of the season trying to win the race that her dam won in 2006. She is a talented filly and had a very good season last year at 3 years old winning 50% of her races, including the Kentucky Oaks, Coaching Club American Oaks, and the BC Distaff. In this race we think she stands a real good chance of coming home the winner.

War of the Lilies - 3 year old filly

G2 Kyodo News Service Hai - Tokyo Racecourse - 9 furlongs Turf

Lilies is making her 2nd start of the year after a strong 2nd place finish in the Japan Cup Dirt against open competition. She is back in her own age division this time, but faces a talented crowd including Molecular winner of the Japan Cup and talented colts Gravedigger, Flash the Cash, and Remus. She'll have to be at her best to pull off a win, but it is within her capabilities.

Notice Me Shipped to Michigan

2011-09-06T18:56:00.002-04:00

Notice Me the 10 year old broodmare was purchased last week from FDL Lodge and has been shipped to Michigan.

The chestnut mare is a dirt specialist and showed glimpses of brilliance on the tracks. Most notably a strong 3rd in the Dubai World Cup as a 3 year old.

"She's a fine broodmare prospect," Chelsey T. said as she unloaded the Eureka Racing Stable bred broodmare. "She had a strong career, and had the talent to race against the best - but it never fully panned out. She's got the tools to become a fantastic producer."

Notice Me won over $1 million in 25 starts racing primarily on dirt from 9 to 12 furlongs. She has 7 foals with In N Out the 4 year old mare by Take a Gander earning over $500,000 in lifetime earnings and 3 year old colt by Dubai Gold winning over $200,000 as a juvenile.

"With strong traits all around," Chelsey continued, "I'm certain she'll make a fine addition to our broodmare band." With Notice Me it rounds out the Hopeful Farm broodmares to 15. Chelsey added that she's hoping to add between 2 - 5 more mares by the next breeding season. Current racers Southern Belle (4 year old), Seduction (6 year old), and Serephina (5 year old) are all being considered as future broodmares.

Racing Week 3 - 4

2011-09-03T12:00:00.001-04:00

5 three year olds and 2 two year olds are making their 2015 debut this weekend.

Double Agent - 3 year old filly

UG Mitchell McKenzie Stakes - Moonee Valley - 5 furlongs Turf

This filly is exceptionally well-bred, but in three starts as a juvenile has nothing to show for it. I'm hoping she's improved since her last start. She's got a relatively inexperienced small field in her debut. Looking for a strong run, and hopefully Top 4.

RESULT: 2nd

Post Race Commentary: Ran a solid 2nd in her race again the boys. Improved PSR by 20 points. She is improving and hoping for more progress this year.

Change of Heart - 3 year old filly

UG William Crockett Stakes - Moonee Valley - 5 furlongs Turf

This filly had a decent showing at 2 years old, but I'm looking for more speed from her at 3. She is also in a relatively inexperienced and small field, with the exception of Stripper the Handsome Man filly from Golden Acres. I'm expecting a Top 3 finish from our filly though.

RESULT: 1st

Post Race Commentary: Her second lifetime win, this filly nearly reached 100 PSR winning wire to wire. She's showing some nice speed, and wasn't bothered by the off track.

Miss Congeniality - 3 year old filly
UG The Gasparilla Stakes - Tampa Bay Downs - 7 furlongs Dirt
Another young filly who didn't show much on the tracks as a juvenile. She's facing a relatively small field and I'm hoping for a strong run from her showing improvement from last year. Hoping for a Top 5 finish.

RESULT: 7th

Post Race Commentary: Unimpressive running 7th. But improved her PSR by 20 points. She'll get one more start in a month or so - and if she doesn't show some big improvement she'll see the sales page.

Old Jack - 3 year old colt
UG The Pasco Stakes - Tampa Bay Downs - 7 furlongs Dirt
An unstarted 3 year old colt that was purchased as a yearling from Stonewall Stable. This colt is a well-bred youngster who is maturing a little slower than we'd hope. But he's going to get a trial run at Tampa Bay in a slightly longer sprint that will aid his deep lungs. Hoping for a strong performance. Hoping for a Top 5 finish.

RESULT: 9th

Post Race Commentary: Was never in the race, but it's okay. He's still a little immature. We'll give him some more time and try him again.

All for Naught - 3 year old colt
UG Vain Stakes - Sandown Park - 6 Furlongs Turf
This promising 3 year old made one start last year as a juvenile where he placed 2nd. He's got a lot of potential and we are expecting him to do big things in the future. He is a son of Handsome Man so is a bit immature - so we are taking an cautious approach with his career. This weekend I'm expecting a Top 3 finish.

RESULT: 3rd

Post Race Commentary: A little disappointing with this 3rd. Although, I said I was expecting a Top 3 I expected him to finish closer to the pace.

St. Vincent - 2 year old colt
UG Snowflake Stakes - Santa Anita - 4 furlongs Dirt
A spur-of-the-moment Auction decision. He's running in a full field. Hoping for a Top 10 finish.

RESULT: 15th

Post Race Commentary: Unimpressive. Will get a couple more starts to show some progress. May hit Sales Page in June if he shows no improvement.

Sua Sponte - 2 year old colt
Allowance - Shenandoah Downs - 5.5 furlongs Dirt
Out second son of Perfect Picture (Handsome Man x Change of Scenery) is looking for his first start. Hoping for a Top 10 finish.

RESULT: 6th

Post Race Commentary: Showed some speed early in the race. Has the speed, needs a touch more stamina. We'll put him on the shelf for a little bit and hope he comes back with some deeper lungs.

Run on Sentence Injured.... Will Sit out Diamond Stakes.

2011-08-30T20:34:00.000-04:00

Run on Sentence lost by the narrowest of margins to his half-brother Molecular in the Japan Cup. But the bigger loss to Hopeful Farm came when the colt came home injured in his first start of the season.

"It's not how we wanted to begin the season," owner Chelsey T. told reporters after the track veterinarians looked at the black colt. His injury is not career threatening, according to reports; but it will set Run on Sentence back about 19 days. After treatment he is to get full rest until the 28th of this month.

"He's going to get a good break." Chelsey continued, "If his recovery has no complications he should be back on the tracks at the end of March or early April. But this means we won't be staying in Japan for the Diamond Stakes."

Hopeful Farm had planned on sending the colt to the 16 furlong test to set up either a bid at Dubai or Melbourne.

"We are still trying to decide to go to Dubai or Australia. The Tokyo meet was supposed to lay down the foundations for Run on Sentence. But now we will just adapt and adjust - our new motto for the year!" She joked.

Racing Week 1 - 2

2011-08-28T13:04:00.008-04:00

The first week of racing will see 8 Hopeful Farm racers ready to make their 2015 debut. Two of our headliners, War of the Lilies and Run on Sentence, will start this weekend along with new comer New Secret and 5 other stablemates.

Seduction - 6 year old Filly

G3 Monrovia Handicap - Santa Anita - 6.5 furlongs - Turf

Seduction is a capable mare winning 3 races with 2 track records last year. We are looking for a Top 3 finish from this mare.

RESULT: 1ST in World Record Time

Post Race Commentary: Wow! Just wow! Such a stunning with and in WOLRD RECORD TIME. Was this a fluke? Or she is just now blossoming at 6? Time will tell... But it's back to the drawing board for her.

New Secret - 4 year old filly

UG Truly Bound Handicap - Fair Grounds - 8.5 furlongs - Dirt

New Secret was purchased at the End of Year Auction. She doesn't have the best record, but she's shown a lot of growth and improvement in her last two starts. A Top 3 finish should be within her capabilities here.

RESULT: 11th

Post Race Commentary: Unimpressive. Was at the top mid-race. Looking for real improvement next time out.

Kay's Heir - 4 year old colt

UG Old Girls' Exhibition Handicap - Eagle Farm - 1 1/8 - Turf

This colt hasn't been unsuccessful in 5 lifetime starts. We are trying him over a longer distance to see if that will improve his results. A finish in the Top 6 would be a great result from this colt.

RESULT: 13th

Post Race Commentary: Dead last. Unimpressive. May get one more start, but likely to end up on the Sales Page soon.

The Sequel - 4 year old colt

UG Virgin Stakes - Calder - 6 furlongs - Turf

This colt has been unimpressive in 5 lifetime starts. He showed a glimmer of talent, but hasn't done much thus far. A Top 5 finish is our goal for him.

RESULT: 1st

Post Race Commentary: Very impressive. Won by nearly 5 lengths. Very happy with this result.

Serephina - 5 year old filly -

G3 Mac Dimarida Handicap - Gulfstream Park - 11 furlongs - Turf

This is another very consistent and capable mare. 11 furlongs is her pet distance and I'm fully expecting a Top 3 finish from this mare.

RESULT: 1st

Post Race Commentary: Commanding win and her 3rd in a row. Ultra-consistent mare.

Run on Sentence - 4 year old colt

G1 Japan Cup - Tokyo Racecourse - 12 furlongs - Turf

Run on Sentence is facing elite level horses in this race including Two Thousand, Pluto, Roanoake, Shewinbyten, Machu Picchu, Rock of Love, and Gravedigger. It's a full field of some immense talent, but I think Run on Sentence can manage a Top 4 finish.

RESULT: 2nd (by the narrowest of margins)

Post Race Commentary: Excellent run by this 4 year old. Just narrowly missed the win to surprise 3 year old Molecular. Very pleased with his run. Came home injured. Vets are still checking him out.

War of the Lilies - 3 year old filly

G1 Japan Cup Dirt - Tokyo Racecourse - 10.5 furlongs - Dirt

I threw caution to the wind with this entry. Never before have I entered a 3 year old in such a race so early in the year. But Lilies is a tough filly, and should hold her own against this open field. With the likes of Gradient, Crescendo, Dynamo, Krazy Sheikh, Majestic Rooney, and our rival Grand Vintage, War of the Lilies has a tough test in her first race as a three year old. I'm hoping she finishes strong in the Top 5 without fading in the homestretch.

RESULT: 2nd (by less than a length)

Post Race Commentary: She was a game filly throughout this whole race. Got a little lazy in the homestretch which may have cost her the win. But very happy with her run and looking forward to her future.

Lead the Way - 4 year old filly

UG Allowance - Shenandoah Downs -16 furlongs - Dirt

This filly has been improving and looks like she wants more distance. Well she's getting it. Her biggest challenge will be if she can handle the distance. I'm hoping for a strong homestretch run with a Top 3 finish.

RESULT: 4th

Post Race Commentary: Ran strong race throughout, and held the lead for a majority of the race. Just didn't quite have enough in the homestretch to hold off the closers. Will get a shorter distance next time. Game run by a talented filly.

Note: I'm trying something new with my weekly racing posts. When I can I'm going to do a preview for all my entries (or at least some, if time constraints restrict) and then post the results and commentary on the same post. I think it'll be cleaner and easier to update and maintain. Of course, for special races/results I'll likely do a separate piece. This is just an easy way to compare my prediction and actual results.

Interesting Pedigree...

2011-08-27T22:15:00.001-04:00

Count Spy

I was perusing the Stud Book and came across this colt from FDL Lodge. He struck an interest with me because of two reasons. The first because his 2-generation pedigree has only PF-based horses in it (the first of the like that I've seen). The second because 5 of the 6 in his pedigree have been either bred or owned by me.

Count Spy $0 0-0-0-0	Count Kane $5,748,750 42-17-10-6	Kendane
		Lady Kay
	Inside Scoop $940,000 20-4-4-4	Handsome Man
		Informative

Count Kane was a colt I bred in 2009 out of one of my favorite mares Lady Kay. Inside Scoop was also a 2009 foal by foundation stallion and one of my broodmares. Both Count Kane and Inside Scoop were sold to Finlay of FDL Lodge in a sale/trade agreement 2011.

Count Kane is out of Lady Kay a mare I purchased as a yearling at my first End of Year Auction at the conclusion of the 2004 Racing Season. Lady Kay is still one of my broodmares who most recently produced the filly Lily's Love (by Tony Montana).

Inside Scoop is by Handsome Man one of the first horses I owned and my foundation stallion. She is out of the mare Informative that I purchased as a 2 year old at the End of Year Auction. She raced for Hopeful Farm for 3 seasons earning $1.4 million in just 20 starts with 8 wins and 2 track records. She was sold in 2010 to Smokey's Stable.

I'll be very interested in seeing how this young colt shapes up... but I certainly like the looks of his pedigree.

On the Derby Trail

2011-08-22T19:22:00.003-04:00

The champion 2-year-old filly War of the Lilies has been wintering in Japan since her win in the Delta Jackpot Stakes nearly a month ago. She has been recently entered in the Japan Cup Dirt.

"She may be scratched later in the week," Hopeful Farm owner Chelsey T. told reporters this morning. "We are still considering her options; but she's a multi-surface filly so it gives us a bit of flexibility in her schedule.

She concluded, "We are seriously considering the Japan Cup Dirt (in which she is currently entered) or debuting her in the Kyodo News Service Hai next month. The Japan Cup is out of the question for her at this stage of her training."

Although it appears that Hopeful Farm's silks will be represented by Run on Sentence in the Japan Cup. Chelsey said that the 4 year old colt has been training well and is looking to bounce back after some lack-luster performances late in the year.

2015 Foals

2011-07-20T21:41:00.003-04:00

To play, press the play button and continue to press play to advance the presentation.

Impulse Auction Buy

2011-07-16T12:12:00.001-04:00

St. Vincent the 2 year old grey colt is the definition of an impulse buy. Prior to the start of the End of Year Auction he did not make my list of potential horses. And yet, after the auction concluded - St. Vincent was shipped to Michigan.

His sire, Discay, was unraced and has limited success as a producer. His dam, Confirmed Princess, was mediocre at best on the tracks. My breeding policy is quite simple - proven racers and producers will have a higher likelihood of producing champions race horses.

So St. Vincent begs the question - why did I purchase him?

Quite simply... I liked his name and I wanted another 2 year old colt.

My 2 year olds were named after the Fox TV-show Bones starring Emily Deschanel and David Boreanaz. Vincent Nigel-Murray was character on the show who was recently killed. Being my favorite "squint-tern" it was a very sad moment to watch his poignant death scene. When I saw St. Vincent at the auction with no bids - I decided to take a chance and hope he pans out.

But honestly... as much as I like his name, if St. Vincent doesn't show some real talent this year he'll likely be sold. But for $52,000 I'll take a chance on this grey colt with the coincidental name. Let's see if heart wins over logic... (And if you watch Bones you will get the double entendre of that sentence).

One Last Chance

2011-07-10T13:54:00.002-04:00

Five of our horses were given one more chance to prove that they deserve stall space. These five were slated to be sold, but for some reason or another were given another shot to prove themselves. But I'll be honest... They have to show something pretty quick - or they'll hit the Sales Page to try to find their luck in a new home.

Kay's Heir - 4 year old colt - In 5 starts the best he's finished in 6th in a 10 horse field at Shenandoah Downs. I don't know why I like this colt so much - but he's managed to stay when so many better horses have been sold. He's 4 now and the excuses are starting to run out. If he doesn't show some real improvement he'll be sold. I'll give him 2 or 3 starts.

The Sequel - 4 year old colt - A Handsome Man son who showed a glimmer of talent posting a 102 in a stakes race last year. I'm convinced he has the speed to race at the G1 level. I think he'll really start to improve, but he needs to show a lot to keep his spot in our barn.

Double Agent - 3 year old colt - This colt stayed on breeding alone... because in 3 starts all he's managed is a distant 6th. By Jenny's My Gal and out of Led Astray this colt should be dripping in talent. But we all know that there are no guarantees in the breeding business. He'll get about 3 more races before we make a decision on him.

Miss Congeniality - 3 year old filly - Unplaced in 3 starts this filly has been unremarkable thus far. She's got to show some real improvement in her next two starts - otherwise she might be the first to hit the sales page.

Star Struck - 3 year old filly - A 3rd out of 6 won't cut it for this filly. She's a Star Studded daughter and we are hoping for more from her. She'll get a few races to show her worth - but I have a feeling about this girl. She just might pan out.

2011-07-10T13:09:00.006-04:00

Throughout the year Hopeful Farm Staff participate in a friendly competition of "Staff Picks." The winner takes the pool (a $10 entry fee) and most importantly bragging rights for the year (or until the next Staff Picks Competition).

Per tradition, the year begins with Picks on this year's crop of 2 year olds. Last year JP Hudson won the pool with War of the Lilies ("How can you bet against a War Machine and Southern Charm baby - JP) over Chelsey's pick of HM Kay Dynasty.

Who will take the prize this year? We will have to wait to find out.

Chelsey T (Owner/Racing Manager):

Hero in the Hold (A Bus x Crown Rose) - This A Bus daughter is a wonder to work with. She's smart and always does what is asked of her. She's excelling in her training and is ready for her first race. There's no real flaws with this one - and she's by last year's leading stud. She's the one to watch.

JP Hudson (Breeding Manager):

Tempe's Logic (Run Missy Run x All for Camena) - There isn't a better bred horse in this crop, period. As perfect as a match War Machine and Southern Charm are - so is this pairing. He's a compact, but feisty colt - but that fire should mean a winning instinct on the track. A dual-surface threat -- how could you bet on anyone else?

Meagan Kane (Head Trainer):

Logic 'R Heart (Bold N' Free x Lady Kay) - This bay filly has all the tools to be the next champion. She has been easy to break and has taken to training like an old veteran. She's calm and collected in the starting gate, but is ready to explode once the gate opens. She has the champion's eye.

Paul Bronson (Assistant Trainer):

St. Vincent (Diascay x Confirmed Princess) - I saw this colt at the End of Year Auction and convinced Chelsey to bid on him. Although I think the only reason that she did was that his name fit into the theme of this year's crop (her favorite squint-tern is named Mr. Vincent Nigel-Murray from the TV show Bones). I've put him through his paces, and he is a solid colt ready for some real action.

Sarah Miller (Groom):

Jeffersonian (Memcay x Bubble Star) - My filly will do whatever is asked of her. She has the sweetest disposition and is the friendliest on the row. But once you put the bridle and saddle on her - she is all business and ready to do her work.

This picture was e-mailed to me by persons unknown... It appears to be in retribution for Jim Webber's not so truthful claim that he had his foals... No one has yet claimed responsibility - Although a few bottles of Spaz Juice were found at the scene.

Auction Results: Part I

2011-06-11T16:19:00.002-04:00

Going into Part I of the Auction I had about 5 horses that I would've liked to take home. Coming out of Part I I'm taking home 3 horses - only 1 of which was on my original list.

Twisted 5 year old Mare -- Sale Price: $1,001,000

Twisted is past her prime as a racer, but I purchased her with the intention of retiring her and sending her to Perfection this season. As a 3 year old she was a strong racer, finishing a close 2nd in the Canadian Oaks to Indecent Proposal and a 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks and at 4 years old placed 3rd in the Dubai World Cup.

St. Vincent 2 year old Colt -- Sale Price: $52,000

This colt was a bit of an impulse buy. I wanted a 2 or 3 year old colt to add to my string of racers, but the ones on my list went a little to high for me. He doesn't have a real strong pedigree, but for $52,000 I decided to take a chance on him... Besides I liked the name (one of my favorite cousin's son's name is Vincent).

New Secret 4 year old Filly -- Sale Price: $261,000

I had originally suggested that another stable purchase this filly. Looking at her record she looks like she might be hitting her peak with an 87, 101, and 99 PSR in her last three starts (including her first win a track record to boot). But when the bidding went above the other stable's budget, and my other filly going above what I wanted to spent on her - I took a closer look at New Secret.

Total Spent: $1,314,000

Bring on Part II - there are a couple of yearlings and possibly another broodmare I've got my eye on...

Rising Star: Run on Sentence

2011-05-20T22:19:00.002-04:00

Run on Sentence was purchased by Hopeful Farm as a yearling as part of a trio of colts from Stonewall Stables. The yearling and two weanlings were purchased for $3 million. At the time there were many who thought that it was too much to pay for the well-bred, but unproven trio.

As a 2 year old the black colt raced only once, and finished 20th in a 20-horse field some 35 lengths back. It didn't look too good.

One year later, Run on Sentence returned as a confident 3 year old and won by nearly 3 lengths. He finished the season with over $3.3 million in earnings and was ranked 12th in Overall Earnings and 6th for his age. He won the G1 Breeders Stakes ahead of BC Endurance winner Refractor and he placed a strong second against the future Horse of the Year Two Thousand finishing ahead of Isca's Dawn the Champion Female Turf horse.

He has immense talent at 10 furlongs and up on the grass. Next season at 4 years old Chelsey T expects him to run in the major turf races from 10 to 16 furlongs.

"We haven't nailed down a schedule for him just yet," Chelsey T told reporters yesterday commenting on the new travel/quarantine restrictions, "We are still trying to work around the new rules, but I expect him to spend at least the beginning of the season overseas in Japan and Australia where there are more lucrative turf races than here in the States."

Thinking about 2015

2011-05-16T17:36:00.003-04:00

The proposed Shipping Restrictions has me thinking about my 2015 Racing Plans. Normally during the off-season I create Racing Plans for all of my racers - or at least most of them. I will making separate racing calendars that has filtered their racing niche. For example, Southern Belle would be restricted to high G2 and G1 dirt races from 8 to 12 furlongs (generally with a purse greater than $200,000). I'd pick out in advanced key target races and plan the rest of her season accordingly providing for plenty of rest.

But these new Shipping Restrictions has me pondering a new racing strategy. I'm currently waiting for Laurie to publish the rules and new racing calendar before I'll begin making plans; but I have a feeling I'll be opening up my margins and racing my horses outside of their comfort zones to ensure they get a full schedule.

For example, Southern Belle may now race in G2 to G1 from 7 to 14 furlongs on both dirt and turf. It is likely that Southern Belle will race at least once on the turf tracks next season. And comparatively Run on Sentence may find himself on the dirt tracks.

For these horses they are talented enough they can probably find success outside of their "best" conditions. I'm curious to see how my lower-rated horses will fare. With a large stable I think I will handle these new restrictions better than smaller stables. I know that I would be nervous if I had a 2-horse stable and I had some picky horses.

2015 is going to be a year of new beginnings.

Jane Austen in Racing

2011-05-16T17:19:00.002-04:00

I am still debating names for my 2015 Foal Crop. I have two themes that I would like to use: Jane Austen and The West Wing. Jane Austen was a prolific writer of the 18th Century. And The West Wing was a popular TV-series drama on NBC starring Martin Sheen as President Josiah Bartlett.

Last year I took a class at the University of Michigan on the works by Jane Austen. Having read her near entire works I have become an avid fan. If you ever want to discuss how her books, short stories, and novellas are much more than the cookie-cutter romance novels, I'm always available.

The following is a list of 13 names that I will use if I choose a Jane Austen Theme:

Austen Legacy
Acknowledged Truth
Knightley's Estate
Donwell Abbey
Pemberley
Mister Darcy
Boisterous Bates
Bya Lady
Victorian Emote
Juvenilia
Colonel Brandon
Ferrars Folly
Georgiana Demure

It Seems Logical...

2011-05-16T02:37:00.005-04:00

Training day for Tempe's Logic

Tempe's Logic. This medium sized two year old colt is creating a lot of buzz among the Hopeful Farm staff who claim this colt has the potential to be their next juvenile success.

A chestnut son of Australian sprinting legends Run Missy Run and All for Camena this colt was bred for pure speed and couldn't come from a better cross. Run Missy Run has proven himself as a rising stallion with his first crop of foal producing the Top 10 trio of Hagrid's Backhand, Remus, and Ole Mas. And this youngster is ready to prove himself as a worth son of two of the best sprinting champions ever to run on the Photo Finish ovals.

Tempe's Logic is coming along nicely and according to reports coming from Hopeful Farm staff he will be among the first to start of the 2015 Juvenile Crop. He's a true dual-surface type that loves to run on a fast, wet, or sloppy track.

Look for an early debut from this promising colt.

Hopeful Farm Horses Absent from Auction Catalog

2011-05-15T22:49:00.002-04:00

For the first time ever there will be no Hopeful Farm owned horses at the End of Year Auction. This was made primarily on the basis that I did not have enough time to full plan out my end of season details. With a perfect mixture of finals, term papers, and a hospital stay I wasn't able to iron out the details of my racers, yearlings, foals, and breeders for the 2014/2015 transition.

I still have about 7-11 stalls left to account for to accommodate the number of foals I plan to breed and horses I wish to buy at auction. However, because I did not sell any horses I will be purchasing stalls to compensate instead.

Because I missed the End of Year Auction I would anticipate that around March to June I will be selling off more horses than usual.

My Auction Plans include picking up 1 or 2 broodmares and a couple of racers including a coming-two year old colt or two. I have only 3 colts from the 2013 Foal Crop and I'm looking to add at least one or two more to off-set my large group of fillies.

After the Sales Catalog is finalized and published, my staff and I will make a list of horses that catch our eye and hope to find the best deal possible... But I'm not afraid to get into a bidding war for that one special horse. I will be among the crowd sitting in the audience waiting until the gavel hits at the last minute.

See you at the buzzer!

Free Shipping... No More!

2011-04-30T10:36:00.001-04:00

It appears that Shipping & Travel Costs are in the near future for Photo Finish. I'm not a fan or a proponent of this idea, but it looks like this is the way of the future. So unless you want to quit or be a rebel (at the cost of actually winning...) - It's time to ADAPT!

Until we see some hard rules on what Shipping and Travel Restrictions are coming... All we can do is speculate. Well, I'm already trying to determine a tentative racing plan for my horses... So it's time to take things into consideration.

On average, I rest my full-time racers (10 or more races) approximately 28-30+ days but with the Travel Restrictions this might not be possible. I might be running my horses on 14 -21 days rest in order to get a full season out of them.

This won't likely hurt horses like War of the Lilies or Run on Sentence. These horses are G1 elites that will race in the top races of the year. The purses will be large, and if I have to cut a few races from their schedule - it's not a huge problem. I'll just have to be more picky and choosy of what races they'll be entered in (which I suppose is the purpose... although I don't agree - that is a different blog topic...)

It's horses like Seduction and Serephina that will be hurting under this schedule - and I would argue stables that are filled with horses like this. These horses are unknowns. They run in very specific races. They are specialists. Seduction needs sprints from 5-7 furlongs in small purse races. Serephina needs small purse races with 11 furlongs being her pet distance.

With the new travel/rest restrictions they could possibly run less than 6 times per year if I follow my own rule of resting a horse 28 - 30 days on average.

The SOLUTION?

Honestly, I'm not sure. The quick and easy answer is that they will simply get less rest and will have to race in races that are not within their OPTIMAL range. 2015 will mark TRANSITIONS but with patience and a bit of FLEXIBILITY hopefully we can make it as painless as possible.

I'll be posting more about my thoughts about planning races as more information becomes available regarding Shipping Costs.

Champion 2 Year Old Filly: War of the Lilies Honored

2011-04-30T10:14:00.003-04:00

War of the Lilies becomes my second Eclipse Winner (with Perfection being my first) and she brings home my third Eclipse Trophy (Or I suppose plaque might be a better word with Laurie's new awards).

When I first decided to cross Southern Charm to War Machine I had a feeling the foal would be a good one. The only thing that surprised me was how long it took me to send Southern Charm to the Otsego stud (although, I think it did take me a season or two to reserve a spot, as War Machine breedings are hard to come by).

War of the Lilies handily won her debut race, the Filly Breeder Stakes, showing a glimpse of her potential as a champion. With her stellar performance I decided to send her to Nad Al Sheba for the Dubai Juvenile. I was fairly confident that she would place in the Top 3, but was concerned if she would be able to beat the colts. Grand Vintage of Newsham Lodge, the eventual Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse Two Year Old Colt, won by 2 lengths and was the better horse that day.

But I was not dissuaded, only more sure of War of the Lilies potential. She was a dual-surface threat, so it was off to Australia for the trio of races: the Magic Millions, Blue Diamond Stakes, and the Golden Slipper Stakes. War of the Lilies proved her mettle winning the Magic Millions in track record time. And then followed up with a fast closing 2nd place finish to Gravedigger of Snowbank Farms. In the Golden Slipper she faced both Grand Vintage and Gravedigger, the only horses to ever beat her, and she bested them both winning the $1.5 million winner's purse.

She had proven herself as the top 2 year old sprinter; but no one, including myself, really knew if she had the stamina to match. Her pedigree suggested that she should be able to handle 8 furlongs and up, but she showed such raw speed - I wondered if she had the stamina to match.

I didn't want to send her to the Breeders Cup before I knew if she could handle 8.5 furlongs. So War of the Lilies headed back to the United States for the first time since her debut at Santa Anita. Oprah's Angel, owned by Finlay at FDL Lodge, was a filly we had beaten in the shorter races earlier in the year; but she was starting to show a lot of talent at 7 and 8 furlongs winning the first two legs of the Juvenile Filly's Triple Crown. The Frizette Stakes seemed like the perfect test for Lilies - it gave her enough rest between her Golden Slipper win and her Breeders Cup debut in November. And Oprah's Angel seemed to be a strong filly that could push Lilies.

Lilies was stunning in the Frizette Stakes winning by nearly 6 lengths. She was ready for the Breeders Cup. But I could decide which race to send her to - the Fillies or the Open. In the end I opted for the BC Juvenile Fillies. It wasn't because I was ducking the colts. Lilies had already proven herself against them, and I honestly believed that the Fillies had a stronger field - and I wanted to see what she could do if pushed at 8.5 furlongs.

She won the BC Juvenile Fillies by nearly 2 lengths ahead of Hagrid's Backhand (Golden Acres), and the fast closing trio Oprah's Angel (FDL Lodge), Andromeda (Chiquita Lodge), and Royal (KRF Stables). Grand Vintage took the Breeders Cup Juvenile by 4 lengths and looked strong winning quite easily.

Grand Vintage and War of the Lilies were both shipped to Louisiana following their wins at Churchill Downs for the Delta Jackpot Stakes. The going was slow, but didn't bother Lilies at all and she won by over 2 1/2 lengths over the game Grand Vintage.

It's been a spectacular year and War of the Lilies is proving that she is the best filly I've ever bred. I'm looking forward to 2015 and beyond with this young filly.

This year, Hopeful Farm was also awarded with three other nominations with Southern Belle in the Champion 3 Year Old Filly and Run on Sentence in the Champion 3 Year Old Colt and Champion Male Turf Horse categories. It marks the most nominations that Hopeful Farm has ever held in one season.

Tentative Breeding Plans

2011-04-28T09:49:00.004-04:00

For some reason I haven't been able to get a lock on my breeding plans this year. I suppose it is in part because I've held the feign notion that I'll be able to pick up another broodmare before the year is over (and I've been debating retiring two of my racers - Seduction and Serephina).

But after many drafts, deliberations, debates... here are my breeding pairings as they currently stand. [Very likely to change, I'll have to admit]

Names are yet to come. I am still trying to decide on a theme for this year.

Handsome Man x Slickfest

Perfection x Crown Rose

Perfection x Diabla

Perfection x Stormline

Regal Son x Southern Charm

Run Missy Run x All for Camena

Tony Montana x Lady Kay

Beamington x Change of Scenery

Lazy Loper x Grinder's Daughter

Braveheart x Golden Gourmet

Smart Money x Led Astray

Vindictive x Promised Land

Star Studded x View of Paradise

All for Naught to Improve at 3

2011-04-22T10:48:00.003-04:00

All for Naught
Handsome Man x All for Camena

Last week I was granted special permission to tour the grounds of Hopeful Farm. It was one of the first times that any reporter was allowed on the premises.

I spent three days with Owner Chelsey T. as she gave me an in-depth and exclusive interview featuring the dynamic sister duo that rivals Serena and Venus Williams - War of the Lilies and Southern Belle (look for the feature piece soon!).

During one of our walks around the pastures, there was one 2 year old colt that Chelsey kept coming back to - a Handsome Man son named All for Naught (out of All for Camena). If you haven't heard of this colt, it's not a huge surprise. In 2014 he raced only once placing 2nd in a ungraded stakes race, but Chelsey is convinced that this colt will be one to watch in 2015 and 2016.

"He's a Handsome Man son," she explained as she fed the chestnut colt a peppermint - like his daddy, his favorite treat, "His explosive speed won't emerge until he's 3 or 4."

His sire is well-known for his unexpected rise to the G1 levels at 4 years old, and passing that quality onto his foals. Perfection is leading son and one of the winningest sprinters of all time was unraced as a 2 year old, and ran only once at 3 finishing dead last. At 4 years old Perfection debuted with a win in World Record time.

All for Camena, this colt's dam, was eventually crowned Eclipse Older Female and Sprinter at 4 years old. She was a real unknown until she matured into her speed mid-season as a 3 year old. Chelsey expects that this colt will follow a similar pattern.

"At 2 years old he's already shown a lot of speed," she explained commenting on his training works at the farm, "He's still rough around the edges and hasn't quite found a use for all four of his feet. His one race last year was to give him a feeling for the races and to vault him into another level of training. In the last two months I've seen a lot of improvements from him."

Chelsey was still trying to determine what his first start would be in 2015. She said, "don't expect him before March, but when he's ready - watch out!"

Survival Guide to the End Of Year

2011-04-19T12:22:00.002-04:00

Entering your first End of Year Madness? Not sure what to expect?

Have no fear. Follow these easy steps, and you'll be ready for 2015 in no time flat!

1. Eclipse Awards: Choosing this year's champions.

Laurie will publish a list of nominations for each category
Where directed, sign in using your stable username and password (same for the Stable Login) and vote for who you think is best!
But before the list is even published - start thinking about who you think is best. Check those race records, compare past performances, and figure out who are the 2014 Champions!

2. End of Year Report: Administrative Paperwork

EVERY stable is REQUIRED to fill this out.
Get your paperwork done BEFORE the deadline.
Last year this was filled out using an online system. Very easy. Very streamlined.
What horses are retiring? (And is available for stud/lease and for how much)
What horses are you selling at the End of Year Auction (If any, what is their reserve).
Do you plan on expanding (see Rules Page for specifics on costs)

3. End of Year Auction: Buy your next champion!

Hundreds of horses will go for sale, including those unnamed foals sitting in Endless Vista
Comb through the Auctions Lists and create a list of horses that you'd like to buy (I'd recommend a list larger than you can hold, because unless you have unlimited funds you won't be able to get every horse on your list)
The auction is set up like Ebay - Place a proxy bid and the system will bid up to that amount for you.
Last year ARs were available for horses through the system.
The Auction is usually set in two parts - Part 1 for Racers and Part 2 ending later for foals/yearling/breeders.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH STALLS (and cash) FOR THE NUMBER OF HORSES YOU ARE BIDDING ON!

4. Breeding: Breeding tomorrow's champions

You can use mares purchased at auction (even if they are not retried at the time of purchase)
You need enough open stalls to accommodate all foals.
Download the breeding form (on the Downloads page)
Reserve stallions for your mare (or lease your mares too!)
Follow the directions very carefully
Choose colt and filly names (please remember 18 characters or less and nothing profane, Laurie will be the final determiner)
Email the form back to Laurie and she will generate the foals.
PLEASE TURN IN ON TIME!
Please Note: If your stable is smaller than Size 3, and you have not sent in a donation, your stable may NOT breed

5. Make a website and/or blog

The transition between seasons can take many weeks. Many people get frustrated about the length of time between racing seasons.
So... Make a website or blog! You can update during the down season, and it is entertaining for others as well. It keeps the spirit of Photo Finish alive. :)

Still confused? Take a look at the Rules - they are pretty complete and informative.

Still unsure of what to do? Ask a question on the forum. Plenty of help there!

2014 Report Card

2011-04-17T12:12:00.005-04:00

2014 was the most financially successful year Hopeful Farm has ever had. In no other year have we brought home more earnings than in 2014.

But as anyone will tell you, earnings is not our primary measure of success. But by breakdown, it was still one of the best season's we've ever had.

In 2014 Hopeful Farm had a record of 131:38-32-14-14 with a win strike rate of 29.01%, On the Board 64.12%, and In the Money at 74.81%.

Let's break it down by horse... (Normally I give an Incomplete for horses with less than 5 races to their names, but decided to assign a letter grade to all this year)

Perfection - 7 Year Old Stallion - 7:2-1-2

In his curtain call year, Perfection started the year off strong with a 2nd in the Negishi Stakes followed by a impressive 3-peat win in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. But my mid-season his age began to show and ended on an unimpressive note.
Grade: A-

Seduction - 5 Year Old Mare - 10:3-3-1-1

Another solid season for this sprinting mare. She managed 2 track records and ran in the money 80% of the time. She is a very handy G2/G3 mare who is very dependable.
Grade: B+

Serephina - 4 Year Old Mare - 10:3-5-0-0

A strong season from this older mare. She races best from 11 furlongs and up and ran in the money 80% of the time. Her only two missteps were uncharacteristic performances from his otherwise very dependable mare.
Grade: A-

Kay's Heir - 3 Year Old Colt - 3:0-0-0-0

Unimpressive at 3 years old. Slightly improved throughout the year, but only managed a 6th place finish.

Grade: F

Lead the Way - 3 Year Old Filly - 8:3-1-2-2

A solid young filly who never ran out of the money this season. She's been improving and shown some aptitude for longer distances.

Grade: A-

Run on Sentence - 3 Year Old Colt - 13:4-4-0-2

A very solid year for this rising star. He started the year off strong, and found his niche on turf between 10-16 furlongs at the highest level. He failed to run on the board in the Hong Kong Cup, but had a solid year all around.

Grade: A

Southern Belle - 3 Year Old Filly - 12:6-3-3-0

This filly started out with a win in an Allowance, then showed he's a top 3 year old winning the Kentucky Oaks and Coaching Club American Oaks - just narrowly losing the American Filly's Triple Crown (placing 2nd in the Black Eyed Susan Stakes). And then she ended the year as the winner at the Breeders Cup Distaff. She never finished worse than 3rd and won an incredible 50% of the time.

Grade: A

The Sequel - 3 Year Old Colt - 4:0-1-0-0

Showed a hint of talent in his 3rd start of the year where he placed 2nd. But overall a disappointing season from this promising colt.

Grade: D

All for Naught - 2 Year Old Colt - 1:0-1-0-0

Placed 2nd in his only start of the season. Showed some good talent for being an immature colt. Has potential. Should improve next year.

Grade: B+

Change of Heart - 2 Year Old Filly - 5:1-1-0-2

Ran in the money 80% of the time and was solid for a 2 year old racer. Showed some potential as a juvenile racer.

Grade: B+

Double Agent - 2 Year Old Filly - 3:0-0-0
Unimpressive at 2 years old. Best finish in last race with a 6th out of 11. Slight improvement, but nothing too exciting.
Grade: F

HM Kay Dynasty - 2 Year Old Colt - 5:2-1-1

Finished the year off strong with 2 wins, including an impressive G3 win. He's steadily improving and showing potential.

Grade: A-

Miss Congeniality - 2 Year Old Filly - 3:0-0-0
Never finished better than 10th. Overall unimpressive 2 year old season.

Grade: F

Old Jack - 2 Year Old Colt - Unraced

Spent the season back at the Farm for additional training. He will start early 2015.
Grade: Incomplete

Star Struck - 2 Year Old Filly - 2:0-0-1

Finished 3rd in her last race, an improvement on her first start. Will need more time to determine true ability.
Grade: C-

Transcription - 2 Year Old Colt - 2:0-1-0

Finished 2nd in his final race and showed some ability and potential. He needs some distance and a bit more time. He should improve next year.

Grade: B+

War of the Lilies - 2 Year Old Filly - 8:6-2-0

Started off the year with a win and never looked back winning 75% of her race including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, Golden Slipper Stakes, Magic Millions, and Delta Jackpot Stakes over Grand Vintage BC Juvenile winner. She won or placed in every major 2 year old race of the year.

Grade: A+

Too Many Horses?

2011-04-13T22:52:00.002-04:00

According to Laurie I can. Right now I have 4 open stalls with 13 or possibly 14 foals on the way. The math just does not add up. The answer is simple - I must sell some stock, expand my stall, or breed less. But none of the options are looking very good right now. But since I can't afford to expand to the size I need and don't really want to breed less foals - I will have to sell a few horses and expand as much as I can. The following are those I'm considering putting up for sale...

Seduction - 5 year old mare - She's been on a possible future broodmare list for awhile now. I purchased her as a yearling with exactly that in mind. She is a half-sister to my foundation stallion Handsome Man and has shown some good speed. She probably has another year of racing in her and is a consistent racer. But looking at my current broodmare band... I don't really need a new sprinting broodmare - So she might be put up for sale (or I might retire and I may sell another broodmare or possibly lease out Seduction or another mare).

Change of Scenery - 13 Year old Broodmare - She is a solid broodmare and proven producer. She has certainly been a nice addition, but I've got a lot of sprinters in my barn and I've been thinking about trading a broodmare or two. I'm looking for some new blood. But with a very limited broodmare availability, I think she's likely worth more keeping her and perhaps leasing her or doing some Lease Trades.

Change of Heart - 2 year old filly - She a nice young filly with some talent. With a record of 5:1-1-0-2 she looks like she'll mature into a nice racer. I'd expect G2 material from her in the future. But again, I'm looking long-term. Do I really need another nice sprinting mare?

Double Agent, Miss Congeniality, Star Struck - 2 year old fillies - All three are well bred (with Double Agent having exceptional parents) but haven't shown much on the tracks as of yet. They could mature and improve, but they are a big question mark as of right now. But, with stall space at a premium they may be worth keeping around and giving them a chance to mature.

Kay's Heir, The Sequel - 4 year old and 3 year old colts - Both are slow maturing colts that need some time to mature. They are improving, but not very quickly. I believe they both have talent, but it hasn't come through on the tracks. They both have big questions on them going into the end of the year.

Unless I decide to buy 10 or so stalls, some big decisions will have to be made in the future... Keep an eye out on the Sales Page or The Report - you might see a Hopeful Farm horse or two up for sale...

Breeders Cup Clash at Delta Downs

2011-04-13T10:28:00.002-04:00

War of the Lilies & Grand Vintage

Meet at Delta Jackpot Stakes

Grand Vintage and War of the Lilies are set to clash in the Delta Jackpot Stakes after they both handily won the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, respectively.

The pair first faced off in the Dubai Juvenile back in March where the Newsham Lodge colt won by 2 lengths. In the Magic Millions and then the Golden Slipper, War of the Lilies proved that she is a filly to contend with coming home the winner over Grand Vintage.

Early this morning War of the Lilies was out on the tracks working 6 furlongs under a snug hold. "Lilies is on a roll," trainer and owner Chelsey T told reporters as she cooled the chestnut filly out, "She has 3 back to back wins and is about as sharp as we can get her."

When asked about what she thought about the field Chelsey said, "Grand Vintage has been a big colt all year, and he had a fantastic Breeders Cup win. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a sub-1:40 to win this weekend."

"But," she continued, "Andromeda the filly from Chiquita Lodge has a huge kick on her. She finished a strong 4th in the BC Fillies...I guarantee she'll be moving in the homestretch."

Hopeful Farm 2015 Roster

2011-04-07T19:34:00.004-04:00

As we gear up for the last weeks of the 2014 Racing Season, I'm starting to look ahead at Year 2015 and what that means for Hopeful Farm. 2014 was a banner year with champions War of the Lilies, Run on Sentence, Southern Belle, and Perfection's curtain call. In 2015 we will be drawing on the proven talent of the Big 3, a trio of consistent females, and hoping a slew of young and unproven stock start to take shape.

Returning Stable Stars "The Big 3"

Run on Sentence

Southern Belle

War of the Lilies

Trio of Females "The Girls"

Seduction

Serephina

Lead the Way

Showing Potential "Best Yet to Come"

All for Naught

Change of Heart

HM Kay Dynasty

The Sequel

Unproven (Pt. 1) "Late to Mature"

Kay's Heir

Unproven (Pt. 2) "Three Year Olds"

Double Agent

Miss Congeniality

Old Jack

Star Struck

Transcription

Unproven (Pt. 3) "Two Year Olds"

End in a Beginning

Fire in the Ice

Hero in the Hold

Jasper's Gift

Jeffersonian

Logic 'R Heart

Seeley's Heart

Squint's Success

Sua Sponte

Tempe's Logic

The Ranger's Creed

The Big 3 will pull their weight (and then some). They are the stable stars and will race against the very best. The Trio of Females (The Girls) are all consistent money-makers in their respective divisions. Every time they race they have a very strong chance of running in the money. Showing Potential "Best Yet to Come" are the youngsters that showed some talent in their few races at 2 years old (with the exception of The Sequel who is a coming 4 year old who is slow to mature, but showing some good signs) . They will likely mature into consistent racers, or even G1 material.

The unproven categories... Well who can say with them - especially the 2 year olds. But I've got a good feeling about Kay's Heir and Transcription.

How Much Are Horses Worth?

2011-04-07T09:53:00.003-04:00

I don't often buy racers. A majority of my racers are homebred foals. I invest my money in purchasing broodmares. But I'm always scouring the Sales Page for a good deal - and to check to see what the value of a good horse is, as it tends to fluctuate depending on the time of year.

Currently there are two 3 year olds owned by Chiquita Lodge selling for just over $500,000. I question if these colts are worth half a million dollars.

Zagreb is a well-bred colt with just over $400,000 in lifetime earnings in only 8 starts; although he has yet to find the winner's circle. He has a very solid AR with no real flaws that are apparent. On that basis he seems like a good buy. But a majority of his earnings comes from one race in the Cox Plate where he finished 2nd to Krazy Sheikh.

Montelimar is another nice colt with $615,000 in earnings from 10 starts. He has a solid AR and should be on form for at least another season or two. In those 10 starts he's only run out of the money once. He seems like a solid lower G2 racer who can be competitive if placed correctly.

Personally, Montelimar seems like a far better deal. But I don't see either of these colts improving much. They should be at their peak, or very close to. Montelimar has all the qualities of being a solid money-maker at the G2 levels. Zagreb has some ability as well, but needs a drop in class to earn some checks.

But are they worth $500,000? I'd have a hard time buying them for that price. (Or Speedy Show the 3 year old filly for $1.55 million)... But then again I'm the person who spent $3 million for an unproven yearling and two weanlings a few seasons ago and over $23 million on my current band of broodmares (and looking to add another).

Run on Sentence to Sha Tin

2011-04-04T12:38:00.001-04:00

The three year old black colt from Hopeful Farm is looking to rebound after a disappointing 4th place finish in the Breeders Cup Turf.

"Run on Sentence," Chelsey owner of Hopeful Farm told a pool of reporters yesterday, "has only improved since his first foray in G1 company back in April. He's strong, fresh, and ready for a big win against the best. I thought he had a good chance at Churchill Downs, but Lady Luck wasn't with us that day."

He is scheduled to be shipped to Hong Kong in the coming days, but apparently Hopeful Farm staff is still debating what race to send him to.

"He's been racing well at 12 furlongs all year," Chelsey explained, "But he had a big, big run in the Tenno Sho in October at 10 furlongs. He'd be a legitimate threat in either the Hong Kong Cup or Vase."

An Annual Argument: Sell, Buy... Expand?

2011-04-04T12:13:00.002-04:00

I thought I was done selling horses this season, but it's stall-crunch season and I'm feeling the pinch with the Breeding Season upon us. J.P. Hudson my Breeding Manager and Meagan Kane my Head Trainer are, once again, at odds over how to best prepare for the upcoming breeding season. The following is a conversation I had with them a few days ago...

MEAGAN: Chelsey, Handsome Man...

JP: Not the Handsome Man argument again!

MEAGAN: Yes, JP. Yes the Handsome Man argument again! [throws hands in the air] You know that stallion you are so proud of?!? Tell me JP... when did he start winning?

JP: Technically...

Meagan: [glare] You know what I mean. His speed came late. You gotta let these guys mature.

JP: Kay's Heir is 3 and hasn't hit the board yet. I've got 13 stallions lined up and 13 broodmares ready to go. Their foals need to go somewhere... Laurie won't let 'em share anymore... No amount of champagne, strawberries, and flowers will change her mind. [sigh]

MEAGAN: [laughs] So those famous charms of yours are failing you, huh?

JP: [glares] Very funny... But Meg, Kay's Heir? What's he got? Besides a healthy appetite..

MEAGAN: Lady Kay as a mom. She's one of the best mares we have. Besides - he's got that spark... I know it. Give him 6 months - Trust me JP, you don't want to sell this colt.

CHELSEY: JP, I agree with Meagan... And I've got a soft spot for him... Who's next?

MEAGAN: Lease out a mare, JP. We've gotten about 5 offers in the last 5 weeks.

JP: Meagan, you know those 2 year olds you like so much.... They gotta start somewhere - Besides I'm scouting for a new brood---

MEAGAN: Chelsey... He's not serious is he?

CHELSEY: [sheepish look] What can I say Meg? He's got a point... But I'll keep it in the mix if I have to... Meg what do you think about Change of Heart?

MEAGAN: Dual surface threat and she's shown some early speed. Sprinter type. But solid.

JP: Sell her. We've got Lily and 4 short mares.

CHELSEY: JP... It's not all about breeding point of view. We need a core group of racers to pay the bills too.

[Five Hours Later]

MEAGAN: That's so off base JP, I don't even know where to start...

[Two Hours Later]

J.P.: Let's just gets some alpacas... start an alpaca farm...

[Four Hours Later]

CHELSEY: Guys... this isn't going anywhere... What are we going to do?

[Meagan & JP look at one another]

BOTH: Call Brad.

This is the one place where these two can agree...

Brad is our contractor.

Match Made in Heaven

2011-03-28T14:07:00.004-04:00

Southern Charm & War Machine

After sisters Southern Belle and War of the Lilies double wins in the Breeders Cup it shows that these blue-blooded fillies having something in their corner.

War Machine, who was trained and currently standing at stud at Otsego Farms, was the first Triple Crown Winner and Horse of the Year in 2006. In three short seasons he won nearly every big race on dirt - including Breeders Cup Juvenile, Dubai World Cup, Wood Memorial Stakes, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, Queen's Plate Stakes, and the Breeders Cup Classic.

Put simply, he was the best of the best during his peak. Nothing could touch him.

Southern Charm who raced under the now closed Nonnazequa and is currently retried at Hopeful Farm, was no slouch on the tracks either. In 2005 she was crowned the first US Filly's Triple Crown winner with back-to-back wins in the Breeders Cup Distaff. In three seasons she racked up 25 wins with 12 G1 wins.

She was won of the best fillies in her day, and it took the likes of War Machine to beat her when well rested.

They were both champions - so it makes sense that they would produce champions. But it goes deeper than that. Most breeders who own mares of the same quality as Southern Charm breed them to stallions of equal quality as War Machine.

So why did this pairing produce two champions? --- Simple answer. They are nearly perfect complements of one another.

While ARs shouldn't be taken as absolute truth - and the older ARs especially so - it still remains a good indicator.

Reasons why War Machine x Southern Charm works:

Both have solid ARs with very few real weaknesses.
Every, Every, area where they show a sign of weakness the other has a trait that compensates for it.
War Machine doesn't like a stretch duel --- It's ok because Southern Charm will fight tooth and nail at the wire.
Southern Charm has average soundness --- War Machine is very hardy.
Southern Charm tends to drift in the curves --- War Machine holds his position in the curves
War Machine handles traffic ok -- Southern Charm isn't bothered by traffic or bumping
War Machine has consistency problems -- Southern Charm is incredibly consistent

Hopeful Farm Breeding Manager, J.P. Hudson, told us that Southern Charm is not scheduled to head to Otsego Farms this season. But talks were underway with Jim Webber for future breeding rights.

"Chelsey is no fool," J.P. went on to say. "Southern Belle and War of the Lilies are some of the best foals bred by Hopeful Farm. It'd be foolish to not consider sending Southern Charm back to War Machine. We're currently looking at options for the 2015/2016 Breeding Season."

Southern Charm	War Machine
Mature slowly, in time for the later handicap season.	Mature quickly, be at peak performance early ready for Derby
Short Peak, only single racing season	Short peak, only single racing season
Near peak for the Derby Prefers Hard Dirt	Near peak for Derby Prefers Hard Dirt
Prefers Soft Dirt	Prefers Soft Dirt
Good Mud	Good Mud
OK Hard Turf	Good Hard Turf
OK Soft Turf	OK Soft Turf
Fight tooth and nail if challenged at the wire	Doesn’t like a stretch duel. May not fight to keep lead at wire
Average soundness	Very hardy, unlikely to fall victim to injuries
Obeys jockey and is flexible in its pacing	Average ratability
Tends to drift out on curves	Holds position well in curves
Cruises once it has the lead	Cruises once it has the lead
Isn’t at all bothered by crowds or bumping	Handles traffic ok
Incredibly consistent, meets potential almost every time out	Consistency problems, doesn’t always meet expectations
Recovers fairly quickly between races	Recovers fairly quickly between races
Average weight carrying capacity	Average weight carrying capacity
Stalk the pace	Flexible, run on lead, stalk, or come from behind
Accelerates like a bullet	Good acceleration
Average speed out of the gate	Average speed out of the gate
Good speed, Could set records	Average speed
Handles 1 1/8 to 2mi, best distance 1 1/2mi	Handles 1 ¼ to 2mi, best distance 2mi

Breeders' Cup Challenge: Make Your Picks

2011-03-25T17:24:00.001-04:00

You don't have to be IN the Breeders Cup to come home a WINNER. Just pick the winner and you could be walking away with up to $2.25 Million!

What started as a friendly competition, soon developed into a multi-million dollar contest. The rules are simple:

Pick 1 horse for each Breeders' Cup Race.
1st Place = 5 points
2nd Place = 3 points
3rd Place = 1 point
Person with the most points wins.

Prize List (Updated 5:17pm March 15th)
1st Place: $2,250,000 + 1st Stallion Pick
2nd Place: $1,500,000 + 2nd Stallion Pick
3rd Place: $1,000,000 + 3rd Stallion Pick
4th Place: $750,000 + 4th Stallion Pick
5th Place: $500,000

Stallion List:
War Machine OR Union Jack
Mars
Final Problem
Sinking Fear

"I thought it'd be a fun competition with bragging rights as the only prize needed," Chelsey T. owner of Hopeful Farm said, "But then my fellow competitors thought it'd be more fun with a bit of a reward at the end of it all. $6 million later - and our purse is $2 million more than any Breeders Cup Purse and nearly equal to the winner of the Breeders Cup Classic."

Well if you thought Breeders Cup weekend was only for the horse-owners... Think again.

If you want a chance at the prize... Get your picks in before SATURDAY AT NOON.

Thanks to the donations by:
Smokey's Stable
Chiknsmack Stables
Chiquita Lodge
Olmo Dorato
Otsego Farms
Hey Buddy Racing Stable
Bally Doyle

Run on Sentence in Breeders Cup Turf

2011-03-25T13:33:00.002-04:00

Breeders Cup Turf entrant Run on Sentence from Hopeful Farm was spotted on the tracks early this morning for a final tune-up before the big race this weekend. He will be the last of three to run from the trio sent by Hopeful Farm, but owner Chelsey T is expecting a strong run from this 3 year old colt.

"He ran a big race his last time out," Chelsey said commenting on Run on Sentence's 2nd place finish in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) behind Two Thousand, "and he's ready to challenge the A Bus colts."

"Two Thousand is probably the best horse never to win an Eclipse or Breeders Cup," Chelsey joked with reporters. "He's an incredible racer and is having a big year. The only flaws on his record this season has been when he has run on less than 9 days of rest."

"Coming into Churchill Downs, he has 3 races in 30 days," she continued, "Well-rested Two Thousand has been unbeatable this year."

But Two Thousand isn't the only A Bus colt that looks to be a contender this weekend. The 6-time Eclipse Winner and 2007 Breeders Cup Turf winner is represented by two other talented 4 year old colts in Indiscretion and Serengeti from Snowbank Farms and Chiquita Lodge, respectively, who should not be discounted in this 12 furlong test.

When asked about Run on Sentences chances this weekend Chelsey remarked, "It's a very tough field. Two Thousand is the horse to beat, but both Indiscretion and Serengeti - along with the filly Shewinbyten - are real threats to bring home the win. But I'm confident that Run on Sentence will be in the mix in the homestretch. In 2008 Led Astray finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup Turf - Run on Sentence is looking to better that mark."

New Design

2011-03-21T21:34:00.003-04:00

You may or may not have noticed, but we are combining our website and blog into one domain to make it more efficient for updating and to peruse. We debated switching over to WordPress (and even set up an account and imported a lot of information), but ultimately decided not to switch and we are staying with blogger.

The biggest change is that a majority of the content found on the Hopeful Farm website (www.hopefulfarmpf.web.officelive.com) can now be accessed under the tabs at the top of this page. We haven't updated the information, and the links still take you to our old website - but in the coming weeks and during the PF-offseason I hope to keep it updated and condense the information further. We will be updating all our information in preparation for the 2015 Racing Season.

Win Sets up Churchill Downs Bid

2011-03-20T22:43:00.002-04:00

War of the Lilies showed her class handily winning the G1 Frizette Stakes by 6 lengths her last prep race before the Breeders Cup Meeting in a month. Prior to the race many expressed doubts that this chestnut filly from Hopeful Farm could handle 8.5 furlongs. But this filly never hit her top gear and ran under the wire with a time of 1:40.10 a time that would win all but one Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and all but one Breeders Cup Juvenile race.

"I don't know why," Owner Chelsey T. told reporters after the race, "But Lilies keeps surprising me and today was no exception. She ran beautifully and proved once again that she deserves to be counted among the best two year olds around."

Although War of the Lilies has run in open competition in the Dubai Juvenile, Magic Millions, Blue Diamond Stakes, and Golden Slipper Stakes and has won or placed 2nd in all four of those races, she is not slated to take on the colts in Churchill Downs.

"Lilies has already proven herself against the boys," Chelsey explained regarding her decision to enter her in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. "I'm not ducking the competition. Anyone who takes a look at the field will tell you this year's Juvenile Fillies looks to be one of the best in years."

War of the Lilies will be shipped to Churchill Downs in the next few days, where she will join Run on Sentence and her sister Southern Belle who are slated to run in the Breeders Cup Turf and Breeders Cup Distaff, respectively.

As Chelsey was leaving one reporter asked if Hopeful Farm's two-time Breeders Cup winner Perfection would be joining the youngsters to the meeting. "No, Perfection is back home in Michigan. My Stud Manager J.P. Hudson said he's settling down nicely into retirement." But Chelsey wouldn't comment any further on the matter. It's no secret that Perfection is a favorite among Hopeful Farm staff, and couldn't have been an easy decision to have him sit out this final race.

Hopeful Farm Sends Colt and Two Sisters to Churchill Downs

2011-03-16T23:21:00.003-04:00

Hopeful Farm was expected to ship four horses to Churchill Downs for the Breeders' Cup Championships; however, with the announcement of Champion Sprinter Perfection's retirement, it seems that Hopeful Farm will be represented by its rising champions.

Run on Sentence the rising 3 year old colt is training hard for the Breeder's Cup Turf where he is likely to meet some tough competition. But his record this season shows that he'll be ready for the challenge. In 10 starts he has 4 wins, 4 seconds, and 1 4th place finish he's showing that he's peaking at the right time.

Southern Belle this year's Kentucky Oaks winner is preparing for the Breeder's Cup Distaff where she is likely to meet some of the top dirt mares. In 10 starts this season she has 5 wins, 2 seconds, and 3 thirds. She is a strong mare and should have a strong run.

War of the Lilies the full sister to Southern Belle and proven 2 year old filly is a likely starter in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. We say likely starter because she is scheduled to race this weekend at Belmont Park and is looking to prove she can handle 8.5 furlongs. She's never been tested beyond 6 furlongs, and while she has proven she has excellent speed, her stamina is still a question.

All For Naught: 2nd in Debut

2011-03-16T12:00:00.002-04:00

All for Naught the 2 year old colt by Handsome Man and out of All for Camena ran a strong 2nd in his debut race this weekend in the H.G. Bolton Sprint against open competition. It was a bit of a controversial entry for Hopeful Farm, but Chelsey T. defended her decision. "With a purse of $48,000 I knew that the field would be relatively weak. He's a son of Handsome Man and is still immature, but his training called for a race to get him past his plateau and get him moving forward and improving."

However, the vet check after the race showed that a slight injury in his right fore. "He was running hard the whole race, but slipped in the homestretch." Chelsey explained, "Our home vet Doc Brown checked him out, and there isn't any lasting injury. In about 2 weeks he'll be ready to go back to some light works, but he's too valuable and has too much potential to risk injuring him further so we're taking it easy with him."

This son of Handsome Man may seen one more race at the end of the year, but Chelsey hinted that he may likely continue training and wait to hit the tracks until early next year. But she seemed pleased with his effort. "Any strong performance by a Handsome Man son at 2 years old is a very good thing. Add to it that this colt is a son of All for Camena and he could be going places."

As one Handsome Man son (Perfection) retires to stud, perhaps another is getting ready to take over the legacy.

PERFECTION Retired to Stud

2011-03-16T11:32:00.002-04:00

Two-time Eclipse and Two-time Breeder's Cup Champion has been retired to stud. Perfection has been shipped from New York to Michigan where he will join his sire Handsome Man as a Hopeful Farm Stud. Owner Chelsey T. supervised the unloading of this 7 year old stallion in Michigan, but declined to comment at the time.

J.P. Hudson the Hopeful Farm Stud Manager explained that it was a very difficult decision to retire Perfection who was the undeniable favorite of Chelsey and many of the staff around the barn.

"He's been around the Farm since 2007 and was the proof to Chelsey and myself," J.P. Hudson explained, "that our breeding program worked. But I'm happy to get him into the Stallion Barn and we all are excited to see his first foals running around the Farm."

Perfection is available for stud for an introductory price of $10,000. Contact Chelsey T. at hopefulfarmpf@gmail.com to reserve a booking.

Yearling Update

2011-03-10T00:31:00.004-05:00

With the racing season entering the final quarter, I've started breaking down my yearlings according to their AR, pedigree potential, and that gut feeling.

The AR works as a general guideline, pedigree potential works as an aide, and the gut feeling... well I had one about War of the Lilies and that turned out OK.

I currently have 11 yearlings in training.

8 Fillies
3 Colts
9 Matures Quickly
1 Matures Average
1 Matures Late
7 Short Peak
3 Average
1 Long
1 Prefer/Good on All Surfaces
5 Prefer/Good on Hard and Soft Dirt
4 Prefer/Good on Hard and Soft Turf
6 OK or Better on All Surfaces
5 Hardy
5 Average Soundness
4 Sprinters
2 Milers
1 Classic
4 Distance

Top Colt Prospect

Tempe's Logic By Run Missy Run out of All for Camena

Sua Sponte By Perfect Picture out of Stormline

Top Filly Prospects

Hero in the Hold By A Bus out of Crown Rose

Seeley's Heart By Braveheart out of Grinder's Daughter

See you at the tracks in 2015!

Looking for More

2011-03-06T19:33:00.001-05:00

War of the Lilies after her win
Golden Slipper Stakes

War of the Lilies beat out a tough field in the Golden Slipper Stakes at Rosehill Gardens. She held out her lead over the fast-closing Gravedigger from Snowbank Farms. She's shown that she has excellent speed winning or placing 2nd in the Magic Millions, Golden Slipper, Dubai Juvenile, and Blue Diamond Stakes. Leading the Top 2 Year Old Earnings list she has proven herself as a champion 2 year old filly.

The folks at Hopeful Farm, however, are hoping to turn this sprinting filly into something that can compete in the fall classics and possibly Churchill Downs in May.

"Heading to Kentucky in May," Chelsey T. owner of Hopeful Farm told the press at Belmont Park this weekend, "has been the topic of a few chatterings among my staff. It's been on my radar, but right now I'm focused on prepping her for the Frizette Stakes.

Lilies will be running 2 1/2 furlongs farther than she's ever raced, and it's going to be a tough test for her. Fin's been doing a great job getting Oprah's Angel ready for these longer races. But right now we are more focused on the distance being Lilies biggest hurdle."

As the daughter of War Machine and Southern Charm one would expect that this youngster should be able to handle the 8.5 furlongs with ease. But Chelsey and the staff remain cautiously optimistic. "She was bred for the classics - but she's been a bit of a surprise act. Never quite behaving or performing the way we expected."

Waiting on the Sidelines

2011-02-23T09:26:00.002-05:00

All for Naught watching a work by War of the Lilies

War of the Lilies is the undeniable star 2 year old in our barn. Winner of the Magic Millions and 2nd place finisher in the Dubai Juvenile and Blue Diamond Stakes this chestnut filly is currently the leading Two Year Old in lifetime earnings with $1.136 million in a mere 4 starts. But I have a chestnut colt waiting for his turn in the spotlight.

All for Naught is the 2 year old colt by Handsome Man and out of All for Camena. He was bred for pure speed, and I have a good feeling about this youngster. But he's not an early type like his stablemate and he's been back at the Farm working on additional training this year. Handsome Man didn't show any speed until 4, and All for Camena started to shine in the middle of her 3 year old season. I have a feeling that this son of All for Camena will mature around the same time.

But I'm itching to see what this colt can do. There is race coming up that should suit him fine. If there aren't too many entries he may hit the tracks very soon.

What to Do??

2011-02-08T20:52:00.003-05:00

Most people have their Breeding Lists all planned out already. I've hardly started. I love Breeding Season. Planning the perfect foal to be the next champion. Picking out the names. Waiting for those ARs. This year, I've got nothing. This year all I know is that Perfection is retiring. All for Camena may be leased out. I've got a handful of stallions lined up, but only one pairing lined up. I've been debating leasing a few List Mares, but haven't made a decision.

The only pairing I know for certainty is Regal Son and Southern Charm that has been planned for over a year.

That leaves... Grinder's Daughter, Change of Scenery, Promised Land, Slickfest, Crown Rose, Golden Gourmet, Stormline, Bubble Star, Lady Kay, Led Astray, View of Paradise, and possibly All for Camena.

I've booked the following stallions: Braveheart, Parisian Sheikh, Run Missy Run, Tony Montana, Lazy Loper and will have Handsome Man and Perfection available as needed. That means I need to book about 5 more stallions. I've got a couple in mind, but haven't made any decisions yet.

My first instinct is to send Perfection to All for Camena - but I'm working out a breeding deal with another stable and she might be included this season. So... that scratches that pairing. I'm noodling the idea of sending Perfection to Led Astray to combine speed and stamina. Change of Scenery, View of Paradise, Golden Gourmet, and Crown Rose are also on the short list for Perfection.

Handsome Man's short list also includes Led Astray, Golden Gourmet, Slickfest, Bubble Star, and Crown Rose.

Beyond that... I haven't a clue.

Anyone have any suggestions? Inspiration? Random Picks?

Southern Belle Just Short of Her Crown... Lead the Way to Challenge?

2011-02-08T20:21:00.002-05:00

Southern Belle winning the
2014 Kentucky Oaks

The compact chestnut filly Southern Belle was victorious in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks the last leg of the Filly's Triple Crown. It was bittersweet as she ran under the wire all by herself as she just missed equally her sire and dam's achievements in winning her own Crown. She surprised all bettors taking home the Kentucky Oaks beating home some classy fillies in She's a Hottie, Mermaid, RememberNinetyNine, House of M, Savage Garden, and more. In the Black-Eyed Susans, Southern Belle ran a game race, but ultimately fell short to Born Wild finishing 2nd.

In 8 starts this season she has never come home worse than 3rd and has done all that's been asked of her. She is our star 3 year old filly and has locked a spot in our Broodmare Barn when she is done racing. But it seems that there is another filly that is looking for her turn at the spotlight.

Lead the Way a 3 year old by Thunder Arctic and out of Led Astray looks like she is starting to hit her peak with two decisive wins in her last two starts. She won handily in both races and has captured our attention. She isn't a quick-maturing filly like the Southern Charm sisters, but she seems to have found her feet. In her last race, G3 Lexington Stakes she handled 10 furlong with ease and wasn't bothered by the distance. This tell us that she's ready for some tougher competition. Look for her to shine in her next start.

Kayson Shipped to Otsego Farms

2011-02-07T21:02:00.006-05:00

Kayson Enjoying the 12+ inches
of snow.

A few days ago Jim Webber, owner of Otsego Farms, and I were able to sit down and discuss shop talk. Although Otsego Farms in Otsego, Michigan is based just a short hour drive from Hopeful Farm we are hardly ever in Michigan at the same time, traveling with our respective international racing strings. But recently we met over a few drinks (and a few laughs -- which may or may not have been at the expense of our friends Down Under...) and Jim mentioned he was in the market for a new veteran racer. I've been considering selling a few of my racing stock instead of investing in a new barn (which I will likely have to do regardless... time to call the Accountant, but I digress). It seemed like it would be an easy deal.

Well Jim has an eye for horses and has discriminating tastes. And I am cautious of selling these late-maturing Handsome Man sons, and I've recently sold another veteran racer and a am in the works to sell another. But eventually we agreed on the 4 year old colt Kayson who recently won in the Frederick Clissold Handicap in Sydney, Australia.

Kayson was pleasantly surprised at the 12+ inches of snow that was waiting for him as he returned home, but thoroughly enjoyed himself acting like a young colt. Best of luck to Jim of Otsego Farms with this colt!

[As suspending reality is a norm for this blog we can forget the little fact that Photo-Finish is entering August 2014 and here in Michigan we just got dumped with 12, 13, 14, 15+ inches of snow since February 2, 2011 - but you don't read this blog for the weather reports!]

Let's Roll the Dice

2011-01-23T19:32:00.001-05:00

I can't make a decision. I suppose that's not too surprising if you really know me. I am probably the most indecisive person on the planet. I tend to overanalyze and over think every decision and choice I've faced with. So I agonize over decisions like: Who to sell? Who to Keep? Should I buy?

A Charmer and Led Away are the main sources of my frustration lately. Both are 4 year old colts. Both are pretty good racers running in the money most of the time.

A Charmer has just over $2 million in lifetime earnings and is a solid G3/G2 racer on dirt from 8 - 10 furlongs. Led Away has just over $1 million in lifetime earnings and is a solid G3/G2 racer on dirt from 8 - 10 furlongs. Sensing a trend?

What I need are some 13-18 open stalls by the end of the year for our new foals; not to mention open stalls for any new broodmare I may acquire by season's end. Currently, I have 1 open stall and I'm hoping to fill that with a new broodmare in the coming weeks. That means I have to either sell or buy or some combination of approximately 15 stalls. Which brings me back to the crux of the problem. A Charmer and Led Away.

Currently, I'm leaning towards keeping these colts, but at the same time I understand that by the end of the season I'm going to want those open spots for new foals. So, if anyone is interested I'm entertaining offers on A Charmer and Led Away.

Handsome Man at Stud

2011-01-23T19:16:00.001-05:00

Handsome Man is our foundation stallion and is standing for stud in the 2014/2015 Breeding Season for $25,000.

He is an ideal match for nearly every mare... And I'm not just saying that to try to get bookings for him. I honestly believe he has certain strengths that will suit him for most mares.

His key quality... Speed. He wasn't the most consistent horse, but he certainly had the speed to race against the very best. His two World-Records and numerous Track Records speak to his speed and his 8 PSRs with 120+ with a high of 128.

He can run on nearly every surface. Dirt, turf, poor conditions (the only he doesn't like is the mud).

He even has a touch of stamina in him. His AR states he can reach 10 furlongs with a best distance of 9 furlongs. He posted a respectable 1:59.66 in the Pacific Classic behind Revenge at 4 years old.

I am convinced his race record would be better if I had been a better manager during his racing days. However, I believe he will show his strength in the breeding shed. His early years were marred like his racing record because I was still learning. But as of late, his foal have been showing great success including Perfection, Beauty Queen, and Perfect Picture.

Book now for only $25,000. Send me an email or private message on the forum.

Serephina: Future in Flux

2011-01-23T02:06:00.003-05:00

Serephina is a 4 year old mare who has been racing quite successfully on the G3/G2 circuit. Her pet distance is right around 11 furlongs and she can run on both turf and dirt regardless of the conditions. She's run out of the money only three times during her career, and this season has a record of 5:1-3-0 with $240,000 in season earnings.

She's definitely a solid race mare who can be counted on to bring home a check nearly every time out.

But I question what to do with her for next season.

Do I keep her on as a racer where she will more than likely earn her keep? Do I retire her at the end of the season to add as the newest Hopeful Farm broodmare? Or do I sell her at the end of the season to make room for next year's foals?

If I keep her as a racer next year, I expect that she'll still be on form and continue to do well on the G2/G3 middle-distance circuit. She's a solid mare and runs well almost every time she is sent to the starting gate. However, as the season comes to a close and the annual scramble for stalls she may be short-listed for the sales page.

But, what if I keep her on as a broodmare? She consistently posts PSRs in the high 90s and 100s and rates as prefers or good on every surface - a very nice quality in any broodmare prospect. Her record is far from fabulous, but she is very consistent with a 83% in the money strike rate, and her times for 10, 11, and 12 furlongs are respectable. She's hasn't shattered records (although she did break two Track Records), but could have potential as a broodmare if matched with the right stallion.

Right now... the jury is still out on her. We shall see how she finishes up the season before we make a decision. Right now I'm leaning towards racing her next season, but if I don't find a suitable broodmare to purchase... maybe she'll fill the empty spot in Broodmare Row.

Broodmare Wanted

2011-01-23T00:44:00.003-05:00

It's that time of year again... the start of the Breeding Season and planning for the next generation of foals. And I find myself wanting to purchase another broodmare to add to my band of females. I've put out a few feelers to some owners, but haven't quite found the right mare that I'm looking for.

I would prefer a mare than handles at least 9 furlongs (either on dirt or turf... or both), as I currently have quite a few under-8 furlong sprinter types and am looking to add more stamina to my broodmare band. She doesn't have to be a champion racer, but I will certainly pay the price for a champion. I'm not afraid of opening the checkbook for just the right broodmare or broodmare prospect.

So if you have a broodmare that you might be willing to part with, shoot me an email at hopefulfarmpf@gmail.com or send me a private message on the forum.

Tomorrow's Champions

2011-01-21T20:28:00.001-05:00

With the Breeding Season already underway with the forum being flooded with advertisements about stallion booking, what exactly does it take to breed a champion? How does one decide which mares to send to any number of stallions that are currently being offered?

According to Laurie the breeding program generates foals with stats that come from 19% Random, 27% Sire, 27% Average of Sire/Dam, and 27% Dam. These 30 some different traits all come together to either produce the next Kentucky Derby winner or the next great lawn ornament.

People's opinion on what it takes to produce a champion differs. From my estimation there are 3 basic options on breeding:

Breeding is a game of chance. Just stick any pairing together. It's all about luck.
Opposites attract. Match a strength with a weakness to cancel both out.
Match strengths together. Like begets Like.

With an 81% chance of these individual traits coming from the parents in some way or another it appears that perhaps Option 1 isn't quite 100% accurate. Actually, I would argue than none of the above should be followed with absolute certainty when it comes to breeding. Breeding has too many factors to boil it down to one system over another. Ask any statistician or breeder - there's too many variables to make one algorithm that guarantees success 100% of the time. That's simply impossible. Plus the random factor makes that a guarantee that you can't accurately predict what a pairing will produce... But I argue that you can make a best possible guess or best possible chance at producing a winner.

I'm against Option 1. Yes, "luck" or the random factor needs to be taken into consideration. It's the X-factor of breeding that no one can predict. But to say that it doesn't make a difference is a false statement. Why else would people be willing to pay $300,000 or more for Regal Son? Why is Regal Son and A Bus already booked some 6 game months before breeding season? Because the sire and dam does make a difference. A major one... Some 81% of a difference in breeding.

Option 2. It's an interesting concept. Take a mare who's a champion dirt sprinter and pair her with a turf endurance champion to produce a foal that has excellent speed, stamina, on both surfaces. It's definitely a risky pairing. Almost as much of a gamble as just throwing darts at a board to pick your pairings. A lot of things would have to align to produce the "perfect foal." All the traits would have to fall under the right category... Speed from the mare, Stamina from the stallion, Hard Turf from the stallion, Hard dirt from the mare... etc. It's hardly worth the gamble in my opinion. You are much more likely to end up with a foal that has no speed and no stamina.

But... But... I tried Option 2 last breeding season. Paul B Rivalry a weanling filly by Retribution a stallion that raced almost exclusively at 12 furlongs on turf and out of Lady Kay a turf mare that had excellent speed but no stamina. I took a gamble on this pairing hoping for the speed from Lady Kay and the stamina from Retribution. Only time will tell if this gamble paid off. She could have the speed from Retribution and the stamina from Lady Kay... not a good combination at all.

Option 3. It seems like the best option. Pairing a classic dirt stallion to a classic dirt mare. Seems like it's the best option all around. Breed the best to get the best. And it is probably to work - if you have a strong mare and sire to consider. If both have the same weaknesses they are likely to be made worse in the foal.

But Option 3 is certainly a policy that I have implemented in the pairing between War Machine and Southern Charm. War Machine won the U.S. Triple Crown and Southern Charm won the U.S. Filly's Triple Crown. Seems like a match made in heaven. I paired them back to back and got the fillies Southern Belle and War of the Lilies who have won the Kentucky Oaks and Magic Millions, respectively.

Seems like we have a winning option then.

But the problem is that not every mare is a Southern Charm. So what about the mares that have very noticeable weaknesses that prevented them from being champion racehorses themselves?

Then perhaps a blending of all three options are needed. Match horses together that share strengths, but try to cancel their weaknesses... and hope for a bit of luck in the pairing. Not every foal out of a champion mare will be a champion themselves. Although Southern Charm has produced two good-looking fillies in back-to-back years she's also produced a few colts that were less than impressive.

Careful consideration of the strengths and weaknesses of the mares and stallions and then a little bit of breeding luck equals the next Kentucky Derby winner.

Spotlight: A Charmer

2011-01-18T22:36:00.001-05:00

A Charmer

A Bus x Southern Charm

4 Year Old Racing Stallion

23:7-3-8 $1,983,500

As a weanling and a yearling this colt was the darling of the barn. Easy-going and gentle-tempered he was not hot-headed like so many confident young colts, but was quiet and willing to please; always a favorite among the staff and visitors alike. Not only that, but rumors of his burgeoning talent were traded among the stablehands as he became an early favorite in the barn.

As a 2 year old, he raced five times winning his last start the G3 California Juvenile. He wasn't a top 2 year old of his year, but he showed talent and promise. He was the stable's best chance at the Kentucky Derby in May. These hopes were slight, as he was far from a champion; but he had the breeding to do it.

In the races prior to the Kentucky Derby he managed a win, second, and 2 third place finishes including 2nd in the G2 Revenge Stakes and 3rd in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. Unconvinced he could place in the Top 5 at the Kentucky Derby with colts such as Gradient, Krazy Sheikh, Two Thousand, and Imperiosso we decided to skip the Derby and see if he was ready for top competition later in the year.

He finished the year with 9 starts, including three G2 wins in the Illinois Derby, Stephen Foster Handicap, and the Goodwood BC Handicap. He never ran worse than 3rd except for his 5th place finish in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. After that we realized that he would never quite amount to the G1 racer that we thought he would develop into, but he remains a solid G2/G3 racer to this day.

As a 4 year old, he's had a bit of a shaky start, but has managed 2 wins in 5 starts. He has a full schedule ahead of him to finish out the season. He may be under consideration for sale later in the season, but if I can work out stall space I would like to keep him on to race next year as a 5 year old.

He's still a darling of the barn and can charm just about anyone for an extra peppermint treat (his absolute favorite). To this day his stable buddy is Led Away another 4 year old colt. The two have been companions since they were very young where they used to race up and down the pasture fence.

All Hope is Not Lost...

2011-01-16T22:22:00.002-05:00

I gave Kay's Heir 6 months to show me some improvement from his first three dismal showings of dead last with negative PSRs in every start. This past weekend he's proven that all hope is not lost for this 3 year old colt.

He didn't turn into a G1 overnight, but she's shown just the slightest glimmer of hope for the future. And my stable's not named Hopeful Farm for nothing.

This past weekend Kay's Heir ran 6th out of 10 in a Starter Allowance at 6 furlongs on dirt. He broke slowly and didn't make much headway finishing some 14 lengths behind the leaders. His PSR was still a low 57.

So why am I excited... or rather not sending him to the Sales Ring just yet? Since his first start of the year in January his PSR has jumped over 100 points. In a year and a half he bettered his time at 6 furlongs by nearly 5 seconds. Give him another 6 months and I wonder just where he will be? I doubt he's going to emerge as a G1 horse, he'll likely peak at a good G2... but you never know - Perfection debuted in a race dead last and 10 months later came home with a World Record. And a year after that came home with his first Breeders Cup win and Eclipse Award...

Hopeful Farm: Where Hopes and Dreams Take Flight

War of the Lilies Wins Magic Millions in Track Record Time

2011-01-16T21:49:00.002-05:00

War of the Lilies wins Magic Millions
over Grand Vintage (Newsham Lodge)

The lovely 2 year old filly War of the Lilies continues to shine as she brings home her first Group 1 win this weekend in the Magic Millions. This younger sister in the pair of fillies from Hopeful Farm is proving that she will not be upstaged by her Kentucky Oaks winning older sister Southern Belle. Both of whom have been garnering a lot of attention in this season.

Both fillies are sired by War Machine and is out of Southern Charm and are proving to be worth daughters of such legendary parents.

War of the Lilies was stunning this weekend winning in Track Record time with grace and finesse not usually seen in such young 2 year olds - or at least from such a young horse from Hopeful Farm. "It's true," Hopeful Farm owner Chelsey T. said with a shrug and a smile as she talked to reporters after the race, "I've never trained a top 2 year old before... I usually try to stick away from the 20-horse fields. But War of the Lilies has never failed to impress. She's got speed and finesse that we don't normally see in our 2 year olds."

Up next for the chestnut filly is the Blue Diamond Stakes where she is likely to meet Grand Vintage again. The two of whom have finished 1-2 in the Dubai Juvenile and now the Magic Millions. "We're looking forward to seeing the Newsham colt again." Chelsey said, "The two have near identical records, both are proven on dirt and turf, and are the top 2 year olds around so far. What's horse racing without a good rival?"

Proper Planning

2011-01-11T21:07:00.002-05:00

In a recent post, Josh Kayll of JD Kayll Race Club asked fellow PF-players what horses they avoid when making their entries. As a rule, I personally don't duck any name horse for fear that they'll beat my horses. If I have a horse like Perfection, Run on Sentence, or Southern Belle they will not back away from any challenge (caveat: Perfection is restricted to dirt sprints from 5-7 furlongs this season because he's doing a curtain-call and proved last year he's just can't compete on turf. We'll face any top sprinters on the dirt ovals).

I simply place my horse in races in which they belong regardless of who shows up. If my horse is a G1 racer, he or she will find a place in the Triple Crown or other Major Races. If they don't... well they will race in competition where they belong. HOWEVER I will not send my G2 racers to meet an elite. They don't have the talent and prove nothing by finishing some 50 lengths behind the leaders. Not to say that I haven't made the odd bad entry.... because everyone has. And if they say otherwise they are either lying or haven't played the game long enough.

It's not a rule of who do I duck... But what races fit my horse the best. Before the racing season starts I'll take some considerations about what I know about my racers and create a schedule for them. Or in some cases I'll make 2 or 3 schedules for them. At March, June, and September months I take a look at each horse and see how they are doing on their racing plans. Now of course I'll alter if drastic action is needed in between, but I'm sure to do a check at these points.

Let's look at a few examples:

Perfection: Runs best on dirt. Can't hold speed past 7 furlongs. Needs rest every 21-30 days. Champion G1 Sprinter.

Perfection is in his curtain-call season. So he doesn't need to 10 races (which is considered a full schedule for us). He'll race in only those that best fit his running style. What does that mean? 5-7 furlongs on dirt. G1 races, with a possible high G2 race. I filtered the Racing Schedule to look for races in which he was eligible and fit the other requirements. It came up with some 20 races. Narrowing that list down further to those that fit around the major races - Dubai Golden Shaheen and BC Sprint - with proper rest came to a mere 7 races for him. Now if he pulls up sore or injured I might change his plan. If he starts losing - his schedule will be altered.

A Charmer: Runs best on dirt (ok on Turf). Speed & Stamina Average. Best around 9 furlongs with a Range of 8.5 - 10 furlongs. Rest: 21-30 days. G2/G3 material.

A Charmer is a 4 year old colt who is probably on the tail end of his peak. His best days are behind him, but he can still find the money. He's your average horse who doesn't have enough speed to be a top sprinter, but doesn't have enough stamina to win at the classics. He's got a full schedule of 10 or 11 races depending on how things pan out. But until March he hadn't hit the money in 3 starts. Unacceptable. So I slightly altered my races for him. Now he's got 2 wins out of 3 starts. He's running in slightly lower company that I had originally planned for him. He's in solid G3 company and might even try his hand at 7 or 8 furlongs.

Run on Sentence: Turf runner. Solid AR.

That's all I knew at the beginning of the season for this colt. He liked turf and had a good AR. With a 20th of 20 finish with a PSR of negative 16 in his first and only start at 2 years old I had no idea what his ability would be at 3 years old. So what I did was plan out the first 3 months. The first in a very low Ungraded Race (Old Girls' Exhibition Stakes) at 9 furlongs as his breeding and AR indicated he needed some distance. Not too much distance, in case he was immature, but enough to stretch his legs. He won wire-to-wire with ease. Okay... So that means a new plan is needed. I tried him at tougher competition. I ran him at 8 furlongs (Bill Strutt Stakes) because I still questioned his stamina. He ran 2nd and needed more distance to catch the winner. Back to the drawing board. High G2 company (Perrier Stakes) but this time at 12 furlongs. It did the trick. He won... with ease. Okay... so the distance is key and he needs tougher competition. The choice came between the Melbourne Cup and the Victoria Derby. I was convinced he needed the 16 furlongs. So off to Melbourne. 4th a good showing, but too much distance this time. Okay... change of plans. Off to the G1 Derby Italinao 12 furlongs for 3 year olds. He ran 2nd by a head. Found his niche. He hasn't won, but he's been in the Top 4 all season. He's got a full schedule ahead of him for the second half.

Does my method work? For me it does. 25.9% Wins, 64.8% On the Board, and 77.8% In the Money. The win rate is ranked 4th overall and 2nd if you look at stables with a min. of 30 starts. The OTB rate is 2nd with the only one higher only has 6 starts.

Not too shabby... Not by ducking horses. Just smart planning.

Patience is a Virtue

2011-01-10T22:16:00.001-05:00

Kay's Heir. He's a 3 year old colt by Dansilver and out of Lady Kay and he's supposed to mature at an average rate.. He's started 3 times... and he's never beaten another horse to the wire. That's right, three last place finishes for this colt. So why hasn't he made it to the Sales Page yet? Our Accounting Manager has argued that he should be quite a few times now. On paper he hasn't shown a lick of talent.

But... paper doesn't quite tell the whole story. Or at least I hope not.

I'm of the camp to wait patiently for a horse to mature. I've got the time and patience to hold on to these late-maturing horses. Goodness knows I've had my fair share of them. But take a look at Perfection he ran 9th of 9 in his debut start at 3 years old, but has gone on to win over $9 million and counting becoming one of the highest earning sprinters ever.

But what about Kay's Heir? Shouldn't he be mature by now? Doesn't his AR state that he should be mature by June of his 3 year old year? Maybe... Probably not for this colt. Actually it states "Mature at the average rate (3-4)." So what if that means 4 year olds... or rather very late 4 years old on the border with "Mature Slowly." If he rated as "Mature Slowly" our normal policy is to hold off on starting them until the end of the 3 year old season... They just do not have the maturity to do well and has been proven time and time again.

I sold a colt Roanoke for a mere $5,000 because he didn't show much promise at 2 years old. Take a look at his first 3 starts... In those 3 starts he only beat 1 other horse. He's now a 4 year old and has earned $1.3 million; a much better record than nearly all of my 4 year olds. As a late 3 year old and into his 4 year old season he started posting PSRs of 90-100s nearly never time out. Guess what the first line of his AR states... You guessed it. "Matures at the average rate."

So Kay's Heir... you've bought yourself another 6 months to mature. Make good use of the time.

2014 Kentucky Derby

2010-12-19T21:27:00.004-05:00

Click on the bottom right hand corner to view in full screen.

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2014 Kentucky Oaks

2010-12-19T21:26:00.001-05:00

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First Kentucky Oaks Win for Hopeful Farm

2010-12-19T19:38:00.009-05:00

Southern Belle the 3 year old filly bred and trained by Hopeful Farm stunned all comers this weekend winning the Kentucky Oaks. It was a surprise even for Hopeful Farm owner Chelsey T. "I knew she had talent and was likely to run in the Top 5... but it was never a guaranteed win." But then again... what race really is?

Southern Belle certainly made her Papa and Momma proud - sired by the first US Triple Crown winner War Machine and out of the first US Filly's Triple Crown winner Southern Charm. Chelsey said that Southern Belle was bred for and always intended for Churchill Downs on the first weekend in May, but some lackluster prep races created the doubt in her ability to win. "She came through for us in the end... and that's is all that matters." Chelsey explained, "But her biggest challenge will come in a short 16 days in the Black-Eyed Susan." Hopefully she inherited some of her parents quick-turnaround.

But this filly was mighty impressive in her win this past weekend.

She fell back early and settled in about 10 lengths off the leaders. But, apparently, she had a lot in her because in the backstretch she made her move with 5 furlongs to go... She started... Well instead of telling you why don't we show you? We managed to get our hands on some film from this past weekend... The video footage isn't the highest quality (we are hoping to get some better equipment soon!), but if you missed the race here's your chance to see it well not first-hand, but second-hand I suppose.

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Note: This is something I'm testing out.. (It's not great quality, because I'm just shooting with my camera on my phone, but going to try some other options in the future). If you have a request and would like to see YOUR horse race then e-mail me at hopefulfarmpf@gmail.com.

Congratulations to Isca's Dawn

2010-12-19T18:18:00.003-05:00

Chelsey T. of Hopeful Farm
at Churchill Downs

I'd like to Congratulate and raise a toast to Smokey's Stable for winning the Kentucky Derby with their fantastic filly Isca's Dawn. She was stunning in the Kentucky Derby this weekend and proved that she is a worth daughter of Isca's Revenge. She looks like she is in for another banner year! Best of luck as she continues her quest for the Triple Crown!

Here at Hopeful Farm we are still celebrating with Southern Belle's win in the Kentucky Oaks where she proved she is possibly the second best 3 year old filly around. We are very pleased with her win as she follows in her mother's foot (or is that hoof) steps winning the Kentucky Oaks. She exceeded our expectations coming from 11 lengths back in the homestretch to win by 3 1/2 lengths in the fastest Kentucky Oaks times to date.

Secondly, Run on Sentence came home with a very close 2nd place finish in the Derby Italiano. He was running hard in the homestretch, but just failed to catch Rock of Love who showed incredible spirit and grit to pull of a stunning win. Congrats to Don of Chiquita Lodge! We look forward to a rematch soon!

Happy Racing to all!

The Trifecta: Mint Julep, Racing Form, Churchill Downs

2010-12-17T20:42:00.002-05:00

Chelsey T. Owner of Hopeful Farm sipping a Mint
Julep while going over the Racing Forum

There is nothing better than a Mint Julep in one hand and a Daily Racing Form in the other when it comes to the first weekend in May. Well... maybe a trophy, but that's still ahead of us. Let's take a look at the horses that are causing all the attention this weekend.

Kentucky Oaks

This year's Kentucky Oaks looks to be a strong field indeed. There are a lot of talented young filly in this season, and none have yet emerged as the champion.

One filly is RememberNinetyNine the filly from Bally Doyle Stables. She's nearly flawless this season, her only loss coming in the Las Virgenes Stakes where the conditions were muddy and she did not fare well. If the track is fast, this filly will be too. She's proven she has some stamina in her winning the 12.5 furlong race in the VRC Oaks.

The Fae at Beltane from Hoosier Daddy Stables is coming off with a win in the California Derby where she set a Track Record. Her time (1:46.83) would have won most Kentucky Oaks, but I don't believe it'll be enough this season. She's fast and proven she can handle the distance. She's one to watch.

Wabbit Season from Smokey's Stable just recently won the G1 Santa Anita Derby in a blazing 1:45.82. She has the talent to win this race, and looks like she's looking for some more distance as well. Regardless this filly is one of the favorites to win this weekend.

She's a Hottie is from the large contingent of Olmo Dorato and most recently has two wins at 9 and 10 furlongs. She posted a competitive 1:46.72 (track record) at 9 furlongs, but I believe she has what it takes to go faster. Don't count her out.

Savage Garden hails from Snowbank Farm and has 4 wins from her past 5 races placing 2nd in the UAE Derby against the boys. She's got some incredible speed on her and should handle 9 furlongs with ease. I'm unsure of her ability about 10 furlongs, but in the Oaks she should be right up on the leaders.

My Picks: Wabbit Season, Savage Garden, RememberNinetyNine

Note: Southern Belle - I believe she has a shot, or I wouldn't have entered her in the Oaks. I just believe based on their past performance there are some fillies better than her. Although, I wouldn't count her out of it just yet.

Kentucky Derby

Now let's take a look at the boys... and a girl.

Pluto Sunshine Stables: He's won some of the biggest races against the toughest competition this season including a World Record. But he's also come 4th in the Caulfield Cup (although I blame this on lack of rest... only 14 days people!) He's had a long rest and so that shouldn't be a factor. He's long on stamina, but may lack the speed necessary to pull off a win. Belmont may be his ticket, but I wouldn't count him out here.

Spaceman Raja Stables Now he has some good speed in him, but he may not have the stamina to hold his speed for the full 10 furlongs. He's never been really tried beyond 8.5 furlongs (well, he did in his first 3 starts as 2... but I discount those). He'll be near the front early on in the race, but he'll have to dig deep to stay within the leaders in the homestretch.

Under my Feet Long Island Hayburners He has some good speed and good stamina, now if he has hit the sweet spot with the balance between the two remains to be seen. He won the UAE Derby against the good filly Savage Garden, but ran some 11 lengths behind Pluto at 11 furlongs. However, 10 furlongs may be just right for him to be competitive.

Isca's Dawn a filly from Smokey's Stable The Champion 2 Year Old Filly almost boasts a perfect record (losing to Two Thousand in the Caulfield Cup). This filly doesn't know that she's a filly and not supposed to be racing against the boys. She's got the speed -she was named Champion 2 Year Old Filly for a reason folks winning some of the biggest sprints. But she's also proven she can be competitive in the longer distances. She's a classy filly.

Nemesis FDL Lodge This colt has a win at 7 furlongs and 2 second place finishes at 9 furlongs this season, but he needs more distance to really prove himself. He's never been beyond 9 furlongs before this weekend, but he should have the stamina to run a full 10 furlongs. He's got some good speed in him as well and should be in the mix in the homestretch.

My Picks: Isca's Dawn, Nemesis, Pluto

A Southern Belle

2010-12-17T19:33:00.001-05:00

Chelsey T. Owner of Southern Belle
before the 2014 Kentucky Oaks

While Chelsey T. owner of Hopeful Farm might not be a true 'southern belle' hailing from the great state of Michigan, she plays the part with grace and style here at Churchill Downs. She arrived in style earlier in the day as part of the entourage that can only be followed when Mr. Webber of Otsego Farms comes into town.

"Jim thrives in the limelight," the more private owner explained, "But it's not for everyone - and it takes some getting used to. Normally I'm not one for the cameras or paparazzi and I'd rather let the more natural socialites give the media the attention they crave... But Southern Belle deserves her due."

Southern Belle the Hopeful Farm bred and trained filly by War Machine and out of Southern Charm is one of the 17 fillies entered in the 2014 Kentucky Oaks. With a pedigree as rich as hers, she should not be overlooked.

"She's far from a champion coming into this race," Chelsey T. said of her filly, "But in May these 3 year olds come out to prove who is the best of the best. None, or very few, are true champions before this weekend and Southern Belle has proven that she deserves a shot."

When asked about the recent rumor that Hayden Christensen, best known as Anakin Skywalker in the Star Wars prequel trilogy, was accompanying her to the by-invitation only FDL Cocktail Reception she replied, "Fin has generously extended an invite plus one, and Hayden's been interested in coming to a Derby for awhile now. He'll be arriving in Kentucky on Friday to watch the Oaks, as we have a little bet going on the winner... He thinks a Canadian horse is the horse to beat."

Top Ten Signs You May be Addicted to Photo Finish

2010-12-14T16:28:00.007-05:00

We are all brought together by the love of the game and horse racing. We wouldn't be playing Photo-Finish if we didn't, and you certainly wouldn't be reading this blog. But what are the signs that you've gone... past what is normal - if you will?

10. You check the forum daily (or hourly...)

9. You hit refresh every 30 seconds on Sunday mornings.

8. You tend to scream at the computer on those Sunday mornings. (and the friends/family consider this normal behavior)

7. You staying up till all hours of the night debating PF-horses and race strategies on MSN/Skype

6. You have planned your day/weekend around Auctions/Breeding/Results/etc. (and the friends/family have grudgingly accepted this)

5. You name your PF-horses after family, friends, pets, etc. and you name your pets/kids/etc. after PF-horses

4. You have a PF-alter ego that jets off to celebrity parties and functions

3. You know PF-pedigrees better than your family tree

2. Laurie's Skype race-calls are the highlight of your year (and you wish she did these 8+ hour marathon sessions every week)

And the Number 1 sign you may be addicted to Photo Finish...

1.You engage in the humorous and lively discussion about travel plans to Churchill Downs (and who is the reining PF-stud)

[Note: I had to edit my #1... because well... I find it amusing that an off-hand comment led to 2-3+ pages of discussion on the forum... ]

The Excuses Keep Coming...

2010-12-14T12:08:00.001-05:00

Never before has a Hopeful Farm horse started with a worse record than Kay's Heir... and still hold a place in the barn.

First race... 17th of 17 with a -26 PSR. Okay so maybe he's still immature.

Second race... 11 of 11 with a -1 PSR. Well... his PSR is better... but still a negative... Hmmm. Well we'll see how he does at 3.

Third race... 11 of 11 with a -50 PSR It was on mud... yeah that's why.

He's never beaten another horse to the wire... Never. So why? WHY? Is this colt STILL at Hopeful Farm? Shouldn't he be shipped off to Endless Vista where he can be retired from the race tracks and maybe find a career in Jumping or Eventing?

There is one reason and one reason only... Okay two reasons why this colt is still munching on hay. The first being his dam - Lady Kay. She's never produced a bad foal and I'm determined that Kay's Heir is not going to be her first. Lady Kay is such a strong broodmare that I have faith in this gray colt.

The second... His AR states "Matures at average rate (3-4). So he's 3 now... shouldn't he be showing some speed? Yes... maybe... I've seen horses who run horribly at 3 and then suddenly turn into champions once they hit 4 or 5 years old. Maybe this colt is on the far end of 3-4 and is still immature in May of his 3 year old season.

THE VERDICT: If he doesn't improve by the end of the season he will be headed to the End of Year Auction with no reserve.

Southern Belle Looking for Lilies

2010-12-14T11:56:00.002-05:00

In 10 seasons, Hopeful Farm has yet to send a horse to the Kentucky Derby and it looks like we will have to wait another year for our Kentucky Derby Hopeful (pun slightly intended). In 2004 we sent Led Astray to the Kentucky Oaks, but the rains came and she just couldn't handle the muddy conditions. She would go on to win the Belmont Stakes. I am hoping that another star filly from Hopeful Farm will have better luck this weekend.

Southern Charm, 2005 Kentucky Oaks

Southern Belle is by War Machine and out of Southern Charm. Frankly, this little filly was bred with this race in mind. How could she not be with her sire being the first US Triple Crown winner and her dam being the first US Filly's Triple Crown winner? She has been the 'belle' of the barn for quite some time now, and she's ready to prove she's worth the hype.

While both her parents came in as favorites, Southern Belle hasn't quite shown the early success that her infamous parents did. But she does show promise and it looks like she has what it takes to be a winner. She's never raced past 8.5 furlongs - a decision that was made early in her training, but I believe her best distance will be at 10 furlongs or above.

Either way the weekend will be a good one because I heard that Mr. Webber (Otsego) and Mr. LaFleur (FDL) are pulling out all the stops for this weekend of racing...

Hopeful Farm vs. FDL Lodge in the Dubai Golden Shaheen

2010-12-04T11:48:00.001-05:00

Hopeful Farm vs. FDL Lodge

For the past two seasons Hopeful Farm has sent Perfection to the Dubai Golden Shaheen and for the past two seasons Hopeful Farm has come out the winner. And Finlay... well for the past two seasons he's sent two horses to face our Champion Sprinter.... and for the past two seasons he's come home 2nd.

In 2012, FDL Lodge sent out two Hopeful Farm bred horses, Count Kane and Inside Scoop to beat our boy Perfection. Sorry Fin! As good as these two wonderfully bred horses are... they just couldn't beat our boy. But we have to give credit to Count Kane coming within 2 lengths of Perfection. The Count is a son of our favorite mare... so he's a good colt, but just not quite good enough.

The following year we again send our boy Perfection. This time Fin counters with the talented Hepatic Flap and Duncan. He should've stuck with Hopeful Farm horses... Because Hepatic Flap finished 2nd to our Perfection (again!) nearly 3 lengths back.

You'd think Fin would learn his lesson... This year Hepatic Flap and Duncan are back challenging Perfection again. You know the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result....

Run on Sentence in the Melbourne Cup

2010-12-04T11:29:00.002-05:00

With the Melbourne Cup just days away, sources from Hopeful Farm say that their 3 year old colt Run on Sentence is training well despite being asked to run 16 furlongs so early in his career. He won easily against open competition at 12 furlongs in the G2 Perrier Stakes. But this folks is a whole other ball game. A full 6 furlongs farther against some of the best distance horses in the game - it's a lot to ask of a 3 year old.

A source within Hopeful Farm, who asked not to be named, said that in the past few months Run on Sentence has matured much faster than anyone had anticipated. "Although he hasn't grown much in height," the source said of the short colt, "hes put on a lot of weight and has really filled out his frame. He went from a gangling awkward colt who'd stumble over himself to a self-assured confident young stallion."

While this young stallion may be growing out of his teen acne, his stamina is still a big question. He's never seen 16 furlongs and only raced at 12 furlongs once where he faced relatively easy competition. He's never been up against Group 1 horses, let alone battling the distance on top of quality racers.

There has been debate in the stables that Run on Sentence should have been entered in the G1 Victoria Derby at 12.5 furlongs for 3 year old racers.

"The Victoria was always under consideration. It is the smarter race, especially with how the field turned out," the source explained commenting on the relatively weak field of the Victoria Derby, "He would've been the favorite to win in that race... But he has been running well in the morning, and he has the breeding to handle 16 furlongs. So far he hasn't shown any signs that he can't handle the trip - and that seems to be good enough for Chelsey... And she's the boss!"

At 12 furlongs this colt seems capable. While he has the tools and potential to handle 16 furlongs, the Melbourne Cup will be a mighty tough race to try it out the first time out. But if runs well, Hopeful Farm might have a pretty nice colt on their hands.

Out with the Old....And In with the New

2010-11-23T23:16:00.001-05:00

The First Quarter of the Racing Season is behind us already, and you know what that means. Start looking ahead to tomorrow's champions. That's right, just as these babies are getting settled in, let's start drafting proposals for the next Breeding Season.

It's right about this time that I start taking a good hard look at my older racers and deciding if they are worth keeping around for another season. Or should I turnover their stall to the next generation.

But is this the right decision?

I just sold the 4 year old mare Bold N' Inside because of this very mantra. In her last start she posted her highest PSR in 6 months... She's only had 19 races... and won a G1 less than 10 months ago. She's a handy little dirt sprinter, but I didn't have a place for her in the Broodmare Barn.... so she was sold. Who will replace her stall? An unknown foal who hasn't even been decided on paper. No pairing. No AR. Nothing. Just an idea.

I've got two 4 year old colts that are scheduled to hit the Sales Page before the next Breeding Season - A Charmer and Led Away. Neither of these 4 year olds are elite champions, but they are honest money-makers A Charmer with a 81% strike rate and Led Away with an impressive 87%. It doesn't get much better than that folks.

So can anyone explain why I'm considering selling these two profitable colts? Or the 5 year old mare Seduction that comes in the money 83% of the time... They are pretty much guaranteed money-makers, yet I'm clearing out my base in order to make room for untried (and really yet-to-be-born foals).

I may have to re-think this strategy...

(Although the flip side of the coin is if I don't breed how will I restock once they retire... It's a paradox alright...)

SOLD: Bold N' Inside

2010-11-22T13:59:00.001-05:00

Bold N' Inside the 4 year year old racing mare by Bold N' Inside and out of Informative was shipped to Ohio and DJ at Under the Weeping Moon this past weekend.

"She's been a good racer for us," Chelsey said of the tall chestnut mare, "and she has a lot of speed and will make a good broodmare prospect for DJ."

Chelsey said that she and her Breeding Manager had looked at the possibility of her joining Hopeful Farm's broodmares, but that she didn't fit their current need. "She's quick to mature and has quick feet, but she is strictly a dirt racer and we are working on breeding dual-surface sprinters rather than one surface specialists." With stall space at a premium these days a decision had to be made.

But Chelsey never expected it'd be such as easy deal to strike. Less than 15 minutes after she mentioned she was considering selling, DJ contacted her inquiring after the mare. Half-an-hour later and the deal was done and paper's signed and accommodations made to ship the mare to Ohio.

Best of luck to DJ and Bold N' Inside!

Run on Sentence Keeps On Running

2010-11-21T17:10:00.003-05:00

Run On Sentence the 3 year old colt by Memcay and out of Skyfinder. This colt was purchased for $1 million and with his win this past weekend showed it might have actually been a smart by for Hopeful Farm.

This black colt won the 12 furlong G2 Perrier Stakes in wire to wire fashion and was still pulling on the way back to the stables. He's inherited his father's stamina, but he seems to be lacking a bit in speed. I believe his best distance may extend beyond 12 furlongs where his deep lungs will be able to make up for his lack of quick feet.

But there aren't too many races further than 12 furlongs on the schedule. I thought about entering him in the English Triple Crown, but I don't believe he has the speed necessary to win the 2000 Guineas. So we are looking elsewhere at 12+ furlongs on turf. Of course, that means the next suitable race would be the Melbourne Cup one of the biggest races for 12+ horses of the year. At this point in his training, I'm not sure that he's ready to face the best of the best. He's tentatively entered, but may be scratched...

But who knows... Lately people have been questioning my entries...so why not throw another one in the pot?

War of the Lilies Debuts with Stunning Win

2010-11-14T17:43:00.001-05:00

War of the Lilies, the 2 year old filly by War Machine and out of Southern Charm, went from a highly touted promising youngster to my top 2 year old prospect. She went off as the 3:1 favorite and did not disappoint her bettors showing off her speed in the Filly Breeders Stakes at Santa Anita.

She broke from the gate mid-pack and very slowly. It took her about a furlong to settle into her stride. With just over 2.5 furlong to go, with a bit of good riding by her jockey and a burst of speed, she claimed the lead... and then started loafing. Except to surge to the front in the backstretch, I don't think she hit her top gear at all coming home and was on her toes all the way back to her stall. Yet she came home with a good time of :56.68 and a PSR of 101.

She showed a lot more speed than we expected her to have at this stage. We figured she would be better once the distances stretched out, but not at such a short distance at 5 furlongs. We may have to take a better look at her future races. She's being seriously considered for the Dubai Juvenile in a month.

Perfection Looks Ahead

2010-11-02T10:28:00.001-04:00

"Another 1/2 a furlong and Perfection would've caught him," Chelsey owner of Hopeful Farm told her contingent after he failed to catch Heptatic Flap in the stretch in his debut this weekend. Perfection the 7 year old back-to-back Eclipse winner returned to the tracks in the G2 Negishi Stakes coming in second to the FDL Lodge 6 year old stallion.

It appears that Chelsey made the correct decision in holding off Perfection's retirement. Although she maintains that he will race in only select races this season. "He struggled on the grass all last year. He's never been fond of it, but his raw talent allowed him to bring home some notable wins. But you can expect him in all the big dirt races this season."

His next start is likely to be the Dubai Golden Shaheen a race in which he is the two-time defending champion. But Chelsey hinted that the nearly 2 month layoff between the Negishi and the Shaheen is too much downtime for the colt. "We're looking into suitable dirt races for him to give him a final tune up before his biggest race of the year."

In other Hopeful Farm news, it is speculated that at least one and perhaps up to three horses will be for sale in the coming weeks. "In the spring of each year we always take a look at our older racers." Chelsey explained, "If we don't see a future as a Hopeful Farm Stallion or Broodmare for either our colts or fillies, we have to consider the pros and cons of keeping them on and if they might be better suited in a smaller outfit where they can get the attention they deserve."

Horses that are likely being considered are 4 year old colts A Charmer and Led Away and 4 year old filly Bold 'N Inside. It's rumored that Chelsey is entertaining inquiries at this time and that one party has already expressed an interested in one of the trio.

Trick or Treat!

2010-10-28T22:45:00.001-04:00

Just thought I'd share a funny picture from my parent's Annual Halloween Party last year. :D

Yes... that is my mom's Cocker Spaniel in a pumpkin costume with an Old Man's mask on.

Having a Change of Heart

2010-10-26T22:19:00.001-04:00

Change of Heart (center) wins by 5+ length over The Brusker (right) and Waking Up (Newsham Lodge)

"She took to the races like a veteran," Chelsey T. said of her 2 year old filly Change of Heart after her stunning win a few days ago at Shenandoah Downs. "She was a little hesitant coming out of the gates, but when some gentle urging was able to navigate through traffic to stay clear of all the hustle and bustle behind her."

Change of Heart raced against a full field of 20 all of whom were making their first starts. But Chelsey T. wisely put her top jockey John Langford on the young filly. "John has a cool head and makes the right decisions. No need to pair a green jockey on an untried talented 2 year old."

John, who we caught as he was catching the Hopeful Farm private Gulfstream headed to Tokyo to join his regular mount Perfection in his last days before his debut at 7 years old, said that the filly didn't make a wrong move and once she had a clear path in front of her and given her head she took off on the competition. "She's a classy filly and was just the best horse that day. She deserves a chance to go up against some tougher competition."

When we asked Chelsey if she was planning on sending the 2 year old to Dubai she only smiled and said, "She won her first race. That's all. She has a lot more racing yet to do. Her time was far from stellar but she proves she has the heart to pull off a win." When pressured if she was at least considering the race Chelsey conceded but added the caveat that she will "likely see another race before we make our decision."

No Spring Chicken

2010-10-25T19:39:00.001-04:00

Perfection has been our bread and butter for the last two seasons. He's a proven champion and was headed to the Breeding Shed at the end of last season for a well-deserved retirement and to begin his career at stud. He had nothing else to prove... Except...

Looking at our 2014 Racing String I wasn't confident that Hopeful Farm would have a winning... or rather productive season. Our older horses were showing signs of being mediocre at best and our up-coming 3 year olds left a lot to be desired. We needed a ringer in our lineup.

But at 7 years old, can this bay stallion be considered a ringer? With back-to-back Breeder's Cup wins and Eclipse Awards this stallion should be headed for greener pastures and a life spent relaxing with the rest of the Senior Citizens of Hopeful Farm... Time and time again champion horses have tried for just one more season only to flop in their first start proving their owners should have followed their instincts.

Something told me this son of Handsome Man isn't done racing yet. Perhaps he won't be crowned Eclipse Champion again... but he still has some speed in him... How much is yet to be determined. This weekend will show if he can compete against the up-and-comers in the Negishi Stakes (which includes a very nice 4 year old son of Handsome Man - Evacuate... these late-maturing sons of Handsome Man tend to hit their peak at 4 and Evacuate looks sharp indeed).

Stop and Smell the Roses???

2010-10-20T11:56:00.002-04:00

Is it too early to think about the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks? This year's 3 year olds are wonderfully bred and I've had my hopes up that this group might have my first Kentucky Derby starter. But last year's performances left something to be desired... talent.

But did we pass judgment too soon?

This past weekend I debuted two 3 year olds with the feign hope of them performing well. Southern Belle is by War Machine and Southern Charm the first U.S. Triple Crown Winner and first U.S. Filly's Triple Crown Winner. She's bred to be a Derby or at least an Oaks contender. I believe so much in this pairing that Southern Belle has 2 year old full-sister.

At 2 years old she was mediocre at best. This weekend she debuted in the 8.5 furlong Allowance winning by 8 lengths with a time of 1:41.31 (Track Record). Her time was even more impressive in the way that she won. She was loafing in the homestretch and came back full of run. She has the pedigree to make it in the big times... we'll see if she has the speed.

Run on Sentence was purchased for the hefty price tag of $1 million as part of a trio of colts from Stonewall Stables. He's by Memcay arguably the best endurance racer PF has ever seen and out of the fine classic distance mare Skyfinder. He should be able to handle the distance.

Last year he ran dead last with a PSR of -16. I had all but written him off as any type of prospect or gaining back a penny of his tag. This past weekend he recouped $30,000 - nothing to get too excited about. But his PSR of 96 meant that in one short year his PSR jumped 112 points. He's lacking a bit of speed, because his jockey had to push him in the 9 furlong test - but he had the stamina to hold his speed.

Run on Sentence will not be aimed at the US Triple Crown, no matter how good he may be. He is strictly a turf horse - so maybe the English Triple Crown.

But these performances have made us hope in our 3 year olds. Perhaps they just weren't ready at 2... even a dismal last place finish with a negative PSR can turn around in a year. I should know this with improvements in my older slow-to-mature horses... I guess we are always learning...

Another Sprinting Son of Handsome Man?

2010-10-03T19:09:00.001-04:00

Kayson is a 4 year old colt by Handsome Man and out of Lady Kay. He's another slow to mature son of Handsome Man who is showing a lot of potential to become our next stable star. As we are preparing Perfection's last season at the tracks, we are hoping to groom this youngster to take his place.

He's shown a lot of promise last year at 3 years old - infact, even more than Perfection did at that age. He ran a total of 4 times, winning 2 of those races including one at 6 furlongs in Track Record time (1:08.76 at Woodbine). With a star like Perfection in our barn, Kayson was able to take an easy 3 year old season and really mature into his long limbs and learn from training sessions from the two-time Eclipse and two-time Breeder's Cup winner.

This season with Perfection concentrating on the dirt races, Kayson will be our top turf sprinter. He doesn't like running on dirt and so this year he will focus on the turf tracks. His first start of the season will be a very tough test in the G2 Sian's Gold Sprint at 6 furlongs on turf. Hes going to be tested right out of the gate to see what he can bring in 2014.

Trying to Catch Lightning in a Bottle

2010-10-03T18:40:00.002-04:00

I don't normally send my 2-year-olds to the races early in season. They are crammed full of inexperienced juveniles, most of whom aren't ready to hit the tracks and have no right on the tracks. So why... why?... WHY? do I have two 2 year olds entered this week - including TRANSCRIPTION in in the G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes a race for 2 year olds at 7 furlongs on turf.

7 furlongs during the first week in January. What 2 year old is ready to race 7 furlongs that early? Probably none. It seems like a silly race so early in the year - but I'm drawn to enter Transcription or possibly a different 2 year old in this race. Is this some sort of intuition of the potential of my 2 year old string? Doubtful. I'm just trying to catch some lightning in a bottle with this youngster.

Transcription is a 2 year old by Memcay and out of Chatterbox. He has illustrious breeding and should be able to handle classic distances once he's fully mature. Is he mature yet? Is he ready for 7 furlongs? I'm not sure. Entries don't close for another week and a half - so maybe I'll come to my senses and scratch him... or maybe not.... We shall see...

Any Two Year Olds Worth Talking About?

2010-09-29T23:54:00.001-04:00

9 two year olds are preparing to make their debut. Are any of them worth mentioning? Last year I had minimal success with my juveniles, most flopping on the tracks with little to give them hope of much improvement (although I still hold out that they can).

It's a new year, new season, and a new group of youngsters to place all our hopes and dreams on. My lack of success with my 2 year olds last year was a big reason in putting off the retirement of stable star Perfection - I need a ringer in my barn (and even that's a big question as he returns at the age of 7 and probably past his prime).

So let's see the Top 3....

War of the Lilies - War Machine x Southern Charm - Filly
The younger of two-full sisters by the first American Triple Crown Winner and American Filly's Triple Crown. This filly has shown a lot of progress in training... if our trainer's know anything. She's quick to mature, loves to run on any surface (turf, dirt, hard, soft), and seems to have the stamina of her parents. The question is - does she have the tools? Who knows. But she's a good prospect. Will she be ready at 2? Probably not. Both her parents were okay at two, but weren't brilliant until 3 or later.

Transcription - Memcay x Chatterbox - Colt
This colt was bred for distance and more distance with both his sire and dam being some of the best endurance horses to grace the game. This white colt is quick to mature and will run on any surface, and seems to have a bit of stamina. If he does... he'll probably make a better late-two-year old or even three year old. Not likely to be a big name in the early sprints.

All For Naught - Handsome Man x All for Camena - Colt
This colt has speed all over him being bred from some of the fastest horses to grace the game. This colt should be a lock on those two year old sprints running on all surfaces. However, he's by Handsome Man so his best years are probably at 3 and older. He's got potential. He'll be worth the wait.

Okay... so our top prospects should show their best late in the year or next year. What about now? What about a Champion 2 Year Old?

Let's take a look at some others...

HM Kay Dynasty - Perfect Picture x Lady Kay - Colt
This is one of the first foals by Perfect Picture, Handsome Man's first son at stud and out of one of our foundaiton mares. He's bred for speed at short distances and should do well under 8 furlongs. He's quick to mature and loves the dirt. The Dubai Juvenile will be in his sights if he shows any talent early on.

Change of Heart - Machete x Change of Scenery - Filly
This young lady is bred for speed under 8 furlongs as well. She's the turf specialist of this sprinting pair, but also runs on the dirt if asked. She'll be ready early and may also target the Dubai Juvenile if things line up right, but if she shows early speed will have her sights on the big turf races for 2 year olds.

Others worth note: Double Agent - daughter of Jenny's My Gal one of his first to hit the tracks and Star Struck - daughter of Star Studded.

2014 Racing Roster

2010-08-24T12:39:00.001-04:00

With a successful 2013 Racing Season behind us, I am hoping to build off last year's success and continue it into the 2014 Racing Season where 21 racers will run under Hopeful Farm's colors.

Perfection - 7 Year Old Stallion - Stable Champion
This two-time Eclipse and Breeder's Cup Champion returns to the tracks at the veteran age of 7 years old as the stable champion. At 7 years old he's the oldest horse to ever race under Hopeful Farm colors, and will race in 2014 on dirt tracks only and in select races only. He's a champion and we're hoping that he can carry his speed for one more season.

Seduction - 5 Year Old Mare - Promising Dual Surface G1 Sprinter
This half-sister to our foundation stallion Handsome Man has shown signs of brilliance. She has the tools to become a champion sprinter/miler on both dirt and turf. In her second to last start, she won her first G1 race (Prix De L'Abbaye) and we are hoping it is a sign that at 5 years old she is starting to hit her stride.

A Charmer - 4 Year Old Stallion - Handy G2/G1 Dirt Router
Winner of almost $2 million in lifetime earnings, this royally bred horse is effective up to 10 furlongs. He is strictly a dirt racer, but almost always finds himself finishing on the board (16 out of 18 starts he's finished 3rd or better). He's a consistent money-maker and will find a full schedule in 2014.

Bold N' Inside - 4 Year Old Mare - G2 Dirt Sprinter
This mare has been racing in longer dirt sprints, but we feel that she hasn't quite found her racing niche. She's a pretty consistent at 8 furlongs and under, but we are going to try her in some shorter trials. She's not the best sprinter in our barn, but she has the speed to compete.

Kayson - 4 Year Old Stallion - Emerging Turf Sprinter/Miler
This Handsome Man colt out of Lady Kay is one we have been waiting for. Lightly raced with only 4 starts under his belt, he has two wins (G2 and G3) and a track record under his belt already. Handsome Man is known for siring late maturing, but extremely fast, foals; and Kayson may be one of his best. Keep an eye on him this season as he emerges into his peak.

Led Away - 4 Year old Stallion - Handy G2/G1 Dirt Router
Last year at 3 years old this colt emerged as another nice G2/G1 dirt router effective up to about 9-10 furlongs. He is consistent money-maker and often finds himself on the board (11 out of 13 starts). He may improve at 4 years old, but he's a fine G2/G1 router.

Serephina - 4 Year Old Mare - All Surface Distance Router
This mare will run on any surface, wet or dry, and has the stamina to extend past 10 furlongs. Last year she had a full schedule racing 10 times winning 3 times and running out of the money only once. We expect her to be a G2/G1 all-surface racer from 10 furlongs and up.

Kay's Heir - 3 Year Old Colt - Dirt/Turf Horse
This 3 year old colt was unimpressive in his 2 starts last year finishing dead last in both races. He's got good breeding and we are hoping at 3 this colt will start to show some speed of his parents, Dansilver, the two-time Eclipse Winner and 2YO Triple Crown, and Lady Kay the extremely fast and proven broodmare.

Lead the Way - 3 Year Old Filly - Dirt/Turf Horse
This 3 year old filly who has promising breeding sired by the infamous Thunder Arctic and out of Led Astray the Belmont Stakes and Dubai Sheema Classic winner. Unimpressive at 2 years old, we are hoping this filly lives up to her pedigree.

Run on Sentence - 3 Year Old Colt - Turf Horse
This colt was purchased as a yearling as part of a trio from Stonewall Stables by the legendary Memcay and out of G1 winner Skyfinder. Another youngster who was unimpressive in his only start at 2 years old who will hopefully improve at 3.

Southern Belle - 3 Year Old Filly - Dirt Horse
At two years old this filly has a record of 4-1-1-0 and is looking to improve at 3 years old. This filly faced the boys twice last season because of lack of appropriate races. However, this filly will try to find the winner's circle again by starting off against the girls.

The Sequel - 3 Year Old Colt - Turf/Dirt Horse
This full-brother to Perfect Picture, winner of the BC Sprint, was unimpressive in his first start finishing last in a field of 9. By Handsome Man we didn't expect him to shine at 2 years old, and are waiting to pass judgment on this colt.

All for Naught - 2 Year Old Colt - Turf/Dirt Horse
A colt by Handsome Man and out of All for Camena this colt looks promising as a future stable star. However, don't expect him to hit the tracks early, if at all, in 2014. If he races this season, his first start is unlikely to be before June.

Change of Heart - 2 Year Old Filly - Turf/Dirt Horse
This filly by Machete and out of Change of Scenery looks to be a handy dual-surface sprinter who may be effective at an early age. She'll likely be one of the first 2 year olds to start for Hopeful Farm.

Double Agent - 2 Year Old Filly - All Surface Horse
A filly by Jenny's My Gal and out of Fine Motion (list mare) loves to run on any surface, wet or dry. She is maturing at a nice clip and will be another early starter for Hopeful Farm.

HM Kay Dynasty - 2 Year Old Colt - Dirt Horse
One of the first foals by Perfect Picture, the BC Sprint winning son of Handsome Man, and out of one of our foundation mares Lady Kay this dirt specialist is ready for his first start. Perhaps he'll follow in the footsteps of Lady Kay's leading colt Count Kane.

Miss Congeniality - 2 Year Old Filly - Dirt/Turf Horse
The youngest foal by Congenial is out of the handy mare Crown Rose and is a fine dirt specialist, but will run well on turf as well. She is ready for her first start to prove her worth.

Old Jack - 2 Year Old Colt - All Surface Horse
This colt by Kendane and out of Promised Land is part of the trio purchased from Stonewall Stables. He was purchased to try to bring a balance to the heavy-filly line-up. However, this colt won't likely start early, if at all this season. Don't expect him to debut before June or July.

Star Struck - 2 Year Old Filly - Turf Horse
This filly is by Star Studded and out of Bubble Star and looks to be a handy early turf type. She's bred to handle more distance than she'll be ready for early; however, she may try her hand at some sprints earlier in the season.

Transcription - 2 Year Old Colt - All Surface Horse
This colt by Memcay and out of Chatterbox is the last of the trio purchased from Stonewall Stables. He looks to be ready for his debut early and will hopefully show that he's worth the heavy price we paid for him. He'll likely start around March or April.

War of the Lilies - 2 Year Old Filly - All Surface Horse
This full-sister to Southern Belle (War Machine x Southern Charm) looks as promising as her older sister. She may be something special, so we are being very careful in her training. However, as an early type she'll likely see a few races early in the season. She'll likely debut around April.

Do We Really Need a End of Year Auction?

2010-08-12T17:50:00.001-04:00

It seems like every year the End of Year Auction is simply a place to dump castoffs to free up stall space for the upcoming foal crop. Each year hundreds if not thousands of horses are put up for sale with no reserve and never attract any interest. A few blue-blooded horses will sell in the millions, and it's always interesting to watch just how high some stables will pay for an untried horse.

But is the Auction really needed every year? Wouldn't the off-season go by so much fast if we didn't have to deal with this? How many people really purchase a horse? And can't it all be done throughout the year, especially with Laurie's annoucement that we'll have proxy bidding in our regular auction sales.

Laurie stated on the forum a few weeks ago, that in order to sell EV horses en masse it is easier to do at the End of Year Auction rather than on the Sales Page. Ok fine. Fair enough.

But how many of these EV horses actually get bought? (I don't know the answer but I intend to pay more attention at this year's auction).

For most people, the way to get a new set of racers is to breed them yourself. For most the Auction is a place to maybe find a breeding prospect or perhaps get a youngster for cheap. But most stables breed their own horses to race them.

If Photo Finish stables keep to this line of thought - then I can see a decline in the need for the End of Year Auction. Private Sales will be the primary way of acquiring a new horse if everyone hoards their best each year.

But what if the attitude changes? What if more stables like Whisperwood and Elite Thoroughbreds who are primarly breeding operations took on a larger role providing horses for the auction? Then I can see the End of Year Auction becoming an event that rivals the Racing Season.

For the past few seasons I've dabbled in my own "Private Auction" held around August/September of each racing season. If finances ever allow me to do, I would increase the number of foals I breed each year to about 20-30 with plans on selling around half of them at either my Mid-Year Auction or at the End of Year Auction. Keeping half to further my own racing string and breeding program. This year I was supposed to breed 14 foals, starting to move in a direction of being an established breeding and racing stable; however, due to lack of stall space that number is likely to be reduced to 12.

However, I hope to be one of the stables that moves in the direction of being a Top Racing and Top Breeding Stable.

Overdue, Past Due... EVICTION...Or Pay?

2010-08-11T23:41:00.001-04:00

I've been playing Photo Finish for nearly 10 seasons now (no this is not going to be another "I'm a veteran so I'm better post" - trust me keep reading) and the same arguments (or as I like to call them debates) come up. And with reason. Most of these topics are things that people will never agree with. Some may change their opinions but they will always firmly believe they are in the right. Well... in my opinion (irony), I believe that no one is actually right (I know... the statement makes no sense).

But on one topic in particular (mostly because it's the Hot Topic of the week) is stables that miss deadlines. And yet Laurie continues to accept their late entries.

My two cents. It happens every year. We know it happens every year. Does that mean we should keep doing something simply because of tradition? No, of course not. That is a silly notion. But is this a thing to be really worked up about? Hardly.

As our participant number steadily reaches 100 and Laurie continues to be the only one running the game, it's simply going to take time for the off season to commence. She can only work so fast and so long each day. It's not simply a push of a button to get the lists of Auction Horses entered, and then Breeding to take place.

So why bring this up? Is it because I tend to ramble at 11:40 pm after a long day at work. That's a definite possibility. But because it's in my opinion that it won't actually speed things up if all stables get their info in on time.

But wait! You say that's not fair. They've had weeks and weeks to complete it. There is no reason they shouldn't have it in by now. It comes every year... etc. Yes that is very true.

So... Why not have a Late Fee? Perhaps that will deter those latecomers. Say... 5 or 10% of their stables income? Or 1% for every day late? Until that final day when Laurie has finalized the Auction List and says "No more! Too Late!"

Personally, I know that if I had a real life emergency (and I nearly did not get my EOY report in on time because of a last-minute real life change in plans) I would hope that Laurie would give me the benefit of the doubt to continue to play a game that I've invested nearly 7 real life years into. I've given 7 years into this game. A few months inbetween seasons is nothing for me at this point.

I've said it before... normally regarding late maturing horses... but I think it applies here as well.

Patience. Patience, my friends.

2013/2014 Breeding Book Sneak Peek!

2010-08-11T14:15:00.001-04:00

Very little has been released about Hopeful Farm's plans for 2013/2014 Breeding Season. But some key pairings have been discussed.

Rumor has it that Hopeful Farm's leading broodmare, Triple Crown winner Southern Charm, is not being used by Hopeful Farm this season. No news yet about who this illustrious mare is being leased out to; but she is not the only Hopeful Farm mare being leased out this season. Interest has been placed in leasing Change of Scenery (dam of Perfect Picture) and Stormline (winner $1 million and daughter of Elmhurst and Sunline).

Champion Sprinter All for Camena is rumored to have been shipped to Snowbank Farm in Virginia along with 2 or 3 other mares representing Hopeful Farm. It has been speculated that All for Camena has been sent to Regal Son.

Australia and New Zealand seems to be the destination of choice of most of Hopeful Farm's mares where the recently retired Tony Montana and Heat Seeker (Golden Acres and FDL Lodge respectively) are standing at stud. Chelsey T. is known to have good relations with both Steven and Finlay and has already been a customer of both their breeding programs. Another likely return trip is to Port Pirie Racing where Chelsey T. already has 2 foals by A Bus, including the $1.8 million winner A Charmer.

Check back for more details of this promising foal crop (with hopefully a peek at some names for these future champions)

Perfection Returning in 2014

2010-08-11T13:51:00.001-04:00

Perfection. My first Eclipse Award Winner. My first homebred Breeders Cup winner (second overall to half-brother Perfect Picture). Sired by my foundation stallion, Handsome Man. A foal out of my 2nd Breeding Crop. This colt has exceeded all my expectations. At 7 years old he seemed ready to enter the breeding shed himself - standing as Hopeful Farm's stud with his sire Handsome Man.

But a few weeks ago, I had a nagging doubt in my mind.

At 6 years old, he started the season strong winning 3 out of his first 4 races - including the Dubai Golden Shaheen for a second year in a row. In his next 4 starts he never placed better than 4th. It looked like he was nearing the end of his career. A 3rd in an UG stakes race seemed to cement the idea.

Then it was time for Breeder's Cup nominations. The Breeder's Cup Sprint. He had won it the year before with a Track Record. It was on his preferred surface, dirt, and on a track that he seemed to like. Why not close out his career with one last shot at the big won.

Lightning struck. And Perfection came home with a stunning win - surprising everyone. Caught up in the celebrations I decided to send him to the Hong Kong Sprint. Lighting can strike again, right? Wrong. Perfection never really ran his best on turf and has never preformed well at Sha Tin Racecourse. It was no surprise he ended the season finishing off the board.

After being named Co-Sprint of the Year it seemed that Perfection would enter the breeding shed on a high note. Ready to contribute his influence to the future of racing.

But then I had a moment of indecision - not an uncommon occurance. But this time I was plagued with the decision to retire Perfection to stud or keep him racing. I asked my fellow PF players what they thought. And after days, and weeks of changing decisions - I decided to give him one last shot. I had always regretted retiring Handsome Man at 5 years old and Perfect Picture at 4 years old. Both - in my opinion - were starting to hit their peak, but I didn't want them to end their careers on a low note. But now we'll never know how good they really were.

Perhaps racing the 7 year old Perfection will turn out to be a mistake. Goodness knows over the last 9 seasons I've made plenty of them. But, as of today, I have a nice racing plan in mind for this veteran dirt sprinter.

Living is Ignorance is BLISS

2010-04-15T10:32:00.001-04:00

In the forum there has been some debate over the integrity of the game, unfair advantages, tweaking horse stats, and revealing horse stats – all in the same thread. I’m not going to address the integrity of the game or unfair advantages or even tweaking horses stats for the benefit and detriment of certain players. It’s been discussed enough and everyone knows where I stand – and no one will ever know the real truth – except perhaps Laurie.

But regarding publishing the HRF data on breeders, yearlings, and foals… Well here is my two cents which when added to a dollar gets you a buck o’ 2.

Bottom line: I am for living in ignorance. Naive? Perhaps. But I believe that the integrity of the game would be lost if this data was published for all horses – racers, breeders, yearlings, or foals.

Yes. That’s right. The integrity would be lost from publishing the data that Laurie has access to and not from her either having that data or changing the numbers.

Why? Well that’s what I hope to explore.

For racers, yearling, and foals if all of the data was made public knowledge then those with HRF game would be able to effectively run the races before the season ever started. There is this nifty feature in the game where one can create new horses. Amazing right? Well as one who has the game I can take the information, create all the horses, and run a mock Kentucky Derby or Breeders Cup Classic and I’ll know who will win (at least who has the best chance to win because every race in HRF is different).

That means those with HRF game is sure to win the Picking the Winners competitions that we hold. It means that stables that breed 20, 30, 40, or 50 or more foals will know who is the best investment to keep at the end of the year when planning on who to sell and who to keep due to stall space.

Sure it would make it a lot easier on myself. I am always struggling with the delicate balance of having enough stalls for the number of foals that I want to breed each season. It means that every year I have to sell off quite a few unraced horses. But if I knew that Yearling A had a 98 speed rating and a 90 stamina rating compared to Yearling B that had a 78 speed rating and 65 stamina rating – guess which one is getting sold on the Sales Page.

The ONLY way to get a champion horse would be to breed. So those who breed 100 foals compared to the smaller stable who only breeds 10 foals each year – who do you think will have a better chance of getting a champion?

My prediction if all the stats were published: Large established stables would continue to succeed, middle-sized stables would remain with G2/G3 racers, and new/small stables would cease to exist. The best 2 year old, 3 year old, 4 year old, etc. could be predicted with each new foal crop. There would be no surprise champions. Does this sound better to you? Maybe it does. I prefer to live in ignorance.

BUT… some have proposed why not just publish the data on breeders? I still say no.

Why? Wouldn’t it let breeders have the chance to breed the best possible foals? Sure, which is why I am against it. I think that it’ll further increase the divide between large stables and smaller/new stables. Yes it will help the smaller/new stables in planning their breeds – but having some stables that breed 20, 40, 60+ foals with an increased likeness of being a champion – does anyone else see a problem in this? Compound with the stats when born – how can anyone else succeed?

Hopeful Farm Sale

2010-04-13T15:59:00.001-04:00

For the past couple of weeks I have been in the process of reducing my stock in preparation for the next breeding season. Usually around this time I have the "Annual Hopeful Farm Private Auction." But this year I have decided to do something a little different - some horses will be offered as a "private sale accepting offers" format and others will simply be put on the Sales Page.

I may decide to do a "mini-Private Auction" in the future, but no plans are set thus far. In 3 weeks time I will be gone from PF for 1 1/2 months and will not be able to enter my horses as I like. I will send some entries in before I leave, but most of my racers will either be sold, leased, or held back until the last week of racing or next season.

If you are interested in leasing a horse for the rest of the racing season, please contact me at HopefulFarm_PF@hotmail.com

I have already sold two of my favorite horses... Perfect Picture and For You to Envy. It was a tough decision, but I think I made the right one.

Perfect Picture was purchased by Mark at 4th Alarm Racing Stable for a sum of $250,000 with other stipulations. Perfect Picture won Hopeful Farm its first Breeders Cup race and was Handsome Man's first multi-millionaire. Winning 10 of 17 races this colt is a fine stallion prospect and has produced 2 fine colts for us.

For You to Envy was one of the best homebred horses that I have ever had the pleasure of owning. However due to lack of stall space I have decided to sell him. He is a fine racer up to 9 furlongs and I just don't have the stall space for another sprinter/miler type horse. So he's been sold to JD Kayll Race Club for $900,000. It was a bit less than we were hoping to get for this colt, but I know the owner, Josh, and decided for him I'd give it to him for less than my initial reserve. I have no doubt he'll do well under Josh's careful training.

Also sold recently was Secret Affair the 3 year old filly to new stable Liberty Farm. Secret Affair is an off-track specalist, but proved she could come in the money in spite of it. For $3,000 this was a steal for the new stable as she should be able to earn back the price tag in very few races.

I am still looking to sell a few more horses in the coming weeks.

Pussy Cat Doll a 5 year old classic distance turf mare is up for sale on the Sales Page. And I may be adding Black Mirage, a 2 year old colt, Serephina, a 3 year old filly, and various yearlings and foals in the near future.

If you are interested in any of Hopeful Farm's stock please e-mail me at HopefulFarm_PF@hotmail.com or send me a private message on the form (user name: hopeful farm)

Broodmare Review: Lady Kay

2010-03-09T19:22:00.005-05:00

Picture Above: Lady Kay with 2013 filly Logic 'R Heart (by Bold N' Free)

Currently Hopeful Farm owns 10 broodmares and in my very biased opinion I believe that they rival any of PF breeding programs.

When looking at a potential broodmare I look at three different categories:

Success on the Tracks - like multi-million dollar winners Led Astray or Crown Rose.
Success of Progeny - like proven producers Grinder's Daughter (For You to Envy, Case Closed), or Change of Scenery (Perfect Picture).
Desirable Traits - Which can include any number of traits and is a bit more subjective, as an example Bubble Star has good stamina.

Of course it is optimal if a broodmare prospect has two or three of the above traits - as All for Camena and Southern Charm were champion race mares, are proven producers, and have many desirable traits for a broodmare.

Over the coming weeks I will be evaluating my broodmares to analyze why each was chosen as a Hopeful Farm mare. In part, to break down my mares for easy reference when considering sire bookings, but also because as my broodmare band grows I hope to lease out more broodmares in the future to interested parties.

Up first is the speed-wonder mare Lady Kay.

Lady Kay has been with us since the start of our first full season. The only horse who has been at Hopeful Farm longer is our foundation stallion Handsome Man. So what has forced us to keep her around for so long?

In a word... she is fast! In her first start she posted a PSR of 120 and went on to post a career high of 122. Her only drawback is that she can't carry her top speed for very long. Her top effective distance was about 4.5 to 5 furlongs. She only raced past 6 furlongs once, due to an entry error where she had a dismal PSR of 24 for 8 furlongs.

Other traits that makes her a good broodmare is that she is quick to mature and can run on turf and dirt. In her first four starts she posted PSRs of 120, 98, 105, and 106 coming in second in her first start and then winning the next three.

She amassed a record of 26:9-6-4-2 with $849,000 in lifetime earnings. I had hoped to get her past that $1 million mark, but she couldn't pull it out. And I retired her at the end of her 4 year old campaign, betting she would turn into a successful broodmare.

Her first foal Lord Kayman is by Handsome Man and showed flashes of speed as a 2 year old and 3 year old. But he didn't turn into the champion foal that I knew Lady Kay was capable of producing.

Then Count Kane a chestnut colt by Kendane came the following year and stunned us as we watched Finlay of FDL Lodge take him to wins in the Blue Diamond Stakes, Golden Slipper Stakes, and eventually be crowned Eclipse Champion 2 Year Old. To date he has 8 G1 wins (out of 12 overall wins) to his name. He proved that Lady Kay could pass on her speed.

Kayson was her third colt and second son by Handsome Man and has recently won in his debut race at 3 years old. He is immature by all accounts and I expect he'll improve by leaps and bounds. With a PSR of 98 his first time out - I wouldn't be surprised if once fully mature he'll be a champion sprinter.

Lady Kay's fourth foal, Kay's Heir by Dansiler, ran 17th of 17 in his first start. After three successful older siblings, I am holding out hope for this grey 2 year old.

Lady Kay's youngest foals are HM Kay Dynasty a yearling colt by Perfect Picture and Logic 'R Heart a weanling filly by Bold N' Free.

When paired with the right stallion, Lady Kay will be a very successful broodmare. Thus far I have only paired her with stallions that prefer 5 - 10 furlongs. In the 2013/2014 I plan to pair her with a stallion that had a bit more endurance to see if we can't get a foal that has stamina as well as speed.

Broodmare Breakdown:

Success on the Tracks - Average to Below Average --- 26:9-6-4-2 $849,000
Success of Progeny - Count Kane - Eclipse Champion 2 Year Old winner of over $4.5 million and promising younsters.
Desirable Traits - Speed, Matures Early, Turf and Dirt, Accelerates Quickly, Break Well from Gate

Lacking in: Stamina, Drive to win, Stamina

A Charmer: At a Crossroads

2010-03-08T20:00:00.001-05:00

A Charmer has a record of 9:2-2-4 with $336,000 in lifetime earnings. It's nowhere near the kind of record of the leading Kentucky Derby prospects, but a very respectable record. He placed 2nd in the Revenge Stakes (G2) behind Imperiosso and 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) behind the near-unstoppable 3 year old colt Krazy Sheikh and Gradient posting a good time of 1:46.41 for 9 furlongs.

The natural question that follows - is where to send this colt? He is a nice colt with impeccable breeding, but is he a Kentucky Derby starter? Or do we send him to the shorter Preakness Stakes in hopes of upsetting? Or bypass the American Triple Crown races and enter him in the Illinois Derby?

He has a much better record than some horses that are bound for Churchill Downs. But Hopeful Farm does not send horses to the big races, just to have an entry. Even though my accountant is pretty happy and I could afford to send a horse to the Kentucky Derby every year and it wouldn't break my account - I do not send a horse unless they can be competitive.

Since I started the game in 2004 - I've only sent two horses to any American Triple Crown races - open or fillies. Led Astray won the Belmont Stakes and placed 4th in the Kentucky Oaks (on a muddy track that did not suit her, in which she should have been scratched). And last year For You to Envy placed second in the Preakness Stakes. A record of 3:1-1-0-1 for the US Triple Crown and US Filly's Triple Crown isn't too shabby.

So what to do with A Charmer? Make him our first Kentucky Derby entry? Wait for the Preakness? Or bypass the Triple Crown all together?

Secret Affair: For Sale?

2010-02-17T22:43:00.003-05:00

As the First Quarter of the 2013 Racing Season comes to an end, cuts are starting to be made in all stables - including Hopeful Farm. With a full stable, I am looking to free up a stall or two.

Secret Affair is a fine 3 year old filly, but she is one that is being considered for the Sales Page. She has a record of 5:0-1-1-2. She has yet to find the winner's circle, but has only raced out of the money once.

Her biggest flaw is that she is an off-track specialist, who doesn't really like running on a hard or fast track. However, she has proven that she has enough class to run in the money even though she doesn't rate well on the conditions. It makes me believe that she has the talent.

She is entered to race in the Tattersall's Cup over 11 furlongs next weekend. I am hoping the added distance will prove to be just what this 3 year old filly needs to find that elusive winner's circle.

I think she has talent and could turn out to be a nice filly. But I have to free up stall space and don't have the time to give her attention she needs. No decision has been made, but if you are interested - send me an e-mail at HopefulFarm_PF@hotmail.com.

Ability Report for horse 10155

Secret Affair (2010), 17.3 hand brown filly
By Supreme Court out of Maxzene's Affair by Black Tie Affair

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse is poor on hard dirt.
This horse dislikes soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse dislikes hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Hopeful Farm Sends Three to Nad Al Sheba

2010-02-17T21:27:00.002-05:00

Pictured from Left to Right: For You to Envy (4yoC), Bold N' Inside (3yoF), Perfection (6yoC)

Hopeful Farm is looking to dominate in the Sprinter/Miler Circuit in 2013. Early reports say that Racing Manager and Owner Chelsey T is preparing three horses at Nad Al Sheba for the Dubai Golden Shaheen and Godolphin Mile. Pictured above is Hopeful Farm's elite sprinters: Eclipse Sprinter of the Year and Breeder's Cup Sprint winner Perfection, Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile winner For You to Envy, and the young 3 year old filly Bold N' Inside.

New to the G1 racing circuit is the 3 year old filly Bold N' Inside who is sired by the two time Eclipse Sprinter of the Year Bold N' Free. If you haven't heard of her, it's not a big surprise. She has never run in a G1 race before, and only recently won her first G2. However, in her last 4 wins (out of 5 races) she has won by a combined total of 27 lengths. It appears that the kid gloves are off for this young 3 year old and she's ready to step it up in class.

There are a couple of problems with this young filly - she is coming off a very short rest period. Chelsey said, "We aren't sure if she is going to start yet. She is ready for a G1 race, but she is stricly a dirt sprinter. There are so few G1 dirt sprints that we may adjust her schedule and race her in the Dubai Golden Shaheen."

Secondly, how good is she? She hasn't really faced G1 competition before. Is she ready for one of the biggest dirt sprints of the year? Maybe not...

Last year's Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Perfection is looking to get back into the winner's circle. This 6 year old colt is unbeaten on the dirt tracks, but has been struggling to win in the turf tracks. His last win on turf was July 2012. He should do well now that he is back on the dirt tracks in the Dubai Golden Shaheen.

"It's part of the problem of having a dirt sprinter, there just aren't enough large-purse dirt sprints to make a full schedule. As Perfection ages, we might have to stop racing him on turf and try to fill out his schedule with lower G1/upper G2 dirt sprints. It's not something I would like to do, but if he can compete on turf - I stuck between a rock and hard place."

For You to Envy is the 4 year old colt who won the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile last year. Since his win at Churchill Downs he has failed to come home with a win. He showed good speed in his last start, Underwood Stakes (G1), at 9 furlongs and should do well at the shorter distance of 8 furlongs.

"Envy is a fine colt," Chelsey said, "And we are hoping for a good showing from him this year. We are still trying to figure out a schedule for me. He's a bit of a funny colt - he's not a true sprinter and he's not quite a classic distance colt either."